Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

Partner, River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management

Partner

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / ESG

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

All investments involve some degree of risk. In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment decision. When making decisions we evaluate a variety of risks, business, economic, volatility, etc. Among them, regulatory risk is one of the most difficult ones to always get a grip on, across countries. Regulatory risks which many a times comes out of sharp changes in Government policy, are often unforeseen or least expected. Such risks often include seemingly and irrationally high unexpected doses of taxation, investors are caught blindsided, wondering how they could have missed handicapping such an event when building their investment case.The outcome of such actions often precipitates a violent reaction in the stock price of companies directly impacted, giving investors no time to respond or react when the first stab of price action happens. These are the proverbial bolts from the blue, that knock the stuffing out of stock prices for quite some time before some recover their pose, while many don’t for years. As markets enter phases of rising volatility, the risks of stock taking knocks from unexpected actions rise and we have seen quite a few this year. Our piece this month is inspired by some of these.

All investments involve some degree of risk. In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment decision. When making decisions we evaluate a variety of risks, business, economic, volatility, etc. Among them, regulatory risk is one of the most difficult ones to always get a grip on, across countries. Regulatory risks which many a times comes out of sharp changes in Government policy, are often unforeseen or least expected. Such risks often include seemingly and irrationally high unexpected doses of taxation, investors are caught blindsided, wondering how they could have missed handicapping such an event when building their investment case.The outcome of such actions often precipitates a violent reaction in the stock price of companies directly impacted, giving investors no time to respond or react when the first stab of price action happens. These are the proverbial bolts from the blue, that knock the stuffing out of stock prices for quite some time before some recover their pose, while many don’t for years. As markets enter phases of rising volatility, the risks of stock taking knocks from unexpected actions rise and we have seen quite a few this year. Our piece this month is inspired by some of these. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become sharply asynchronous this year. Add to that worries on emerging market contagion and trade war between the two largest economies in the world, no wonder markets are looking wobbly.  In uncertain times like these, it is sometimes better to look at history and facts rather than forward conjectures and doomsday extrapolations. In this monthly outlook from <a href="http://www.rivervalleyasset.com/" target="_blank">River Valley Asset Mgt.</a>, we look at two key facts which are stark and tell their own story. From an investment perspective, given where valuations are in Asia, the long run forward return expectations are increasingly looking attractive. Good businesses normally do not trade cheap, but there are times when uncertainty in the environment presents such an opportunity and wealth creation is about grabbing those instances. We think one such phase in a market cycle is about to be presented to investors who are patient and astute.

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become sharply asynchronous this year. Add to that worries on emerging market contagion and trade war between the two largest economies in the world, no wonder markets are looking wobbly.  In uncertain times like these, it is sometimes better to look at history and facts rather than forward conjectures and doomsday extrapolations. In this monthly outlook from River Valley Asset Mgt., we look at two key facts which are stark and tell their own story. From an investment perspective, given where valuations are in Asia, the long run forward return expectations are increasingly looking attractive. Good businesses normally do not trade cheap, but there are times when uncertainty in the environment presents such an opportunity and wealth creation is about grabbing those instances. We think one such phase in a market cycle is about to be presented to investors who are patient and astute.  

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit.

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows.  Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been quite as weak, so its buy signal is more muted, but both are now rated Bottom-Fishing Buy. We view these as only trading recommendations, given the late stage in the post-2016 uptrend, and, if the US fails to signal a final run, we would tighten stops or exit. 

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

China

The MSCI AC Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1987.

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

Short press below S&P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving...

Thomas Schroeder

Bolts from the Blue

All investments involve some degree of risk. In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an...

River Valley Asset Management

Opportunities in Times of Uncertainty

Global markets are showing diverging trends in terms of both economic growth and asset prices. The synchronized recovery of last year has become...

River Valley Asset Management

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Emerging Markets: Trading Buy Signal Given

A confirmed 200-day moving average buy signal has been triggered in MSCI GEM on the recent new correction lows. Asia Pacific ex Japan has not been...

Peter Beuttell