Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.</li>
<li>ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.
ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.


Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Remain overweight Technology, our primary focus every single week since April 16. It's getting hard to find names near buy points. Elsewhere, we highlight opportunities within Discretionary, Industrials, and Transportation


Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

United States

The MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987. MXWD includes both emerging and developed world markets. 

MSCI ACWI Index (MXWD INDEX)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Time to Buy Global Technology Stocks (Lite-On, Lenovo, $SAP, etc.); Metals/Miners Also in Focus $AYA $GDX $XME; MSCI $ACWI Clean Breakout; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on ACWI-US; Crude Oil Top in Place

Lockout Rally Continues; Yet Another Bullish Gap on $ACWI; Crude Oil $USO Top in Place; Actionable Themes: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research