Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Global equities advanced in August, driven by strong demand for technology stocks and expectations of monetary easing.</li><li>The MSCI World Index gained +2.49% MoM, supported by broad-based gains across developed markets, especially the U.S.</li><li>The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India and Taiwan. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Global equities advanced in August, driven by strong demand for technology stocks and expectations of monetary easing.The MSCI World Index gained +2.49% MoM, supported by broad-based gains across developed markets, especially the U.S.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India and Taiwan. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CardinalStone Research -  Monthly Equities Review - August 2025

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

CardinalStone Research - Monthly Equities Review - August 2025

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+1.22% MoM) also improved, buoyed by positive performance in Chinese equities, which outweighed weakness in India...

CardinalStone

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research