Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

Most analysts would agree that US shadow banking and its associated leverage and inadequate regulation lay at the heart of the World’s financial problems in 2008 and that distress in the sub-prime mortgage market ultimately triggered the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). But we suggest here that there may be another explanation that closely involves China? This is NOT in any way to suggest that China caused the GFC. Rather it says that we always need to take a broad, global view and to understand…

Most analysts would agree that US shadow banking and its associated leverage and inadequate regulation lay at the heart of the World’s financial problems in 2008 and that distress in the sub-prime mortgage market ultimately triggered the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). But we suggest here that there may be another explanation that closely involves China? This is NOT in any way to suggest that China caused the GFC. Rather it says that we always need to take a broad, global view and to understand…

Did China Really Cause the 2008 Global Financial Crisis?

Cross-border capital flows have done it again. Asia '97. Lehman '08 and now a US Treasury-led sell-off in '18. The danger signs have been the extraordinary valuations put on US 'safe' assets, namely 10-year governments (negative term premia!) and the still overvalued USD. The sell-off will be sharp as these distortions unwind, but this will not signal the end of the bull market, at least not for Asia where thanks to China, it may only just be getting going. Our take, using liquidity and capital…

Cross-border capital flows have done it again. Asia '97. Lehman '08 and now a US Treasury-led sell-off in '18. The danger signs have been the extraordinary valuations put on US 'safe' assets, namely 10-year governments (negative term premia!) and the still overvalued USD. The sell-off will be sharp as these distortions unwind, but this will not signal the end of the bull market, at least not for Asia where thanks to China, it may only just be getting going. Our take, using liquidity and capital…

Update on the Bear -- Too Much Capital Concentration

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Solusi Sinergi Digital / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's internet penetration rate is quite high, but most of it is powered by smartphone data. Broadband internet penetration is still quite low. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solusi-sinergi-digital-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33156:1" rel="noopener">Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk PT (WIFI IJ)</a> will expand in Java and ex-Java as well; the economics of owning broadband are clearly favorable to smartphone data. </li>
<li>A couple of foreign institutions have invested in WIFI, validating the investment thesis. Valuation has normalized as well, making it more palatable to invest. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia's internet penetration rate is quite high, but most of it is powered by smartphone data. Broadband internet penetration is still quite low. 

Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk PT (WIFI IJ) will expand in Java and ex-Java as well; the economics of owning broadband are clearly favorable to smartphone data. 
A couple of foreign institutions have invested in WIFI, validating the investment thesis. Valuation has normalized as well, making it more palatable to invest. 


Solusi Sinergi Digital (WIFI): Normalized Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI Inc (MSCI US)</a> did not downgrade but chose to wait and see the OJK's execution and impact on the Indonesian capital market. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> earnings result is relatively decent that provide support to the share price, while low free floaters underperformed. </li>
<li>Softening auto loan growth should not be seen as a real risk, as it was caused by macroeconomic conditions and a shift in consumer spending pattern. </li>
</ul>



MSCI Inc (MSCI US) did not downgrade but chose to wait and see the OJK's execution and impact on the Indonesian capital market. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) earnings result is relatively decent that provide support to the share price, while low free floaters underperformed. 
Softening auto loan growth should not be seen as a real risk, as it was caused by macroeconomic conditions and a shift in consumer spending pattern. 


Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.</li><li>It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.</li><li>However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.</li></ul>

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

United States

MSCI Inc. provides investment decision support tools to investment institutions worldwide. The Company produces indices and risk and return portfolio analytics for use in managing investment portfolios.

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MSCI Inc (MSCI US)

Did China Really Cause the 2008 Global Financial Crisis?

Most analysts would agree that US shadow banking and its associated leverage and inadequate regulation lay at the heart of the World’s financial...

Michael J. Howell

Update on the Bear -- Too Much Capital Concentration

Cross-border capital flows have done it again. Asia '97. Lehman '08 and now a US Treasury-led sell-off in '18. The danger signs have been the...

Michael J. Howell

Solusi Sinergi Digital (WIFI): Normalized Valuation

Indonesia's high internet penetration is mostly from smartphone data, with low broadband access. Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk PT benefits from this...

Henry Soediarko

Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...

Henry Soediarko

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last...

Dechert LLP

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Did China Really Cause the 2008 Global Financial Crisis?

Most analysts would agree that US shadow banking and its associated leverage and inadequate regulation lay at the heart of the World’s financial...

Michael J. Howell

Update on the Bear -- Too Much Capital Concentration

Cross-border capital flows have done it again. Asia '97. Lehman '08 and now a US Treasury-led sell-off in '18. The danger signs have been the...

Michael J. Howell

Solusi Sinergi Digital (WIFI): Normalized Valuation

​Indonesia's high internet penetration is mostly from smartphone data, with low broadband access. Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk PT benefits from this...

Henry Soediarko

Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

​MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...

Henry Soediarko

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last...

Dechert LLP

Indonesia's high internet penetration is mostly from smartphone data, with low broadband access. Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk PT benefits from this...

MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...