Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease</li>
<li>
PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal</li>
<li>
Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak</li>
<li>No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will</li>
</ul>


Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease

PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal

Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak
No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will


Understanding Chinese Monetary Policy: Trying Hard to Ease?

<ul>
<li>Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019</li>
<li>
Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August</li>
<li>
Global Liquidity conditions turning higher evidenced by rising gold</li>
<li>Bond markets heavily distorted by austerity policies and ‘safe’ asset shortage</li>
</ul>


Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019

Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August

Global Liquidity conditions turning higher evidenced by rising gold
Bond markets heavily distorted by austerity policies and ‘safe’ asset shortage


The ‘Quick’ Recession … Is It Over Already? Latest Liquidity Data Agrees

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity remains weak</li>
<li>Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts</li>
<li>This creates excess demand for ‘safe’ assets that explain low Treasury yields</li>
<li>Implies ‘true’ Fed Funds nearer-6% than 2¼%: US Fed still far too tight</li>
</ul>

 
Global Liquidity remains weak
Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts
This creates excess demand for ‘safe’ assets that explain low Treasury yields
Implies ‘true’ Fed Funds nearer-6% than 2¼%: US Fed still far too tight


Up, Up and Downnnnnnnn… Why This Crisis Is About Finance (Again) And Not About The Economy

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway</li>
<li>US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets</li>
<li>Attempts by other economies to weaken their currencies against the USD will reinforce Fed easing</li>
<li>Gold and cryptocurrencies favoured. Asian and Emerging Markets later</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway
US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets
Attempts by other economies to weaken their currencies against the USD will reinforce Fed easing
Gold and cryptocurrencies favoured. Asian and Emerging Markets later


The US Fed Steps-Up the Pace – Updating The Shanghai Accord 2.0

<ul>
<li>Central Banks Worldwide now easing, led by China's PBoC</li>
<li>Our World Central Bank Liquidity Index has more than doubled to 40 (range 0-100) since last October</li>
<li>More QE is only ‘practical’ policy given already low policy interest rates and IMF warnings about dangers of more fiscal spending</li>
<li>Equities, notably non-US stocks exposed to China, and gold look decent investments.</li>
</ul>


Central Banks Worldwide now easing, led by China's PBoC
Our World Central Bank Liquidity Index has more than doubled to 40 (range 0-100) since last October
More QE is only ‘practical’ policy given already low policy interest rates and IMF warnings about dangers of more fiscal spending
Equities, notably non-US stocks exposed to China, and gold look decent investments.


Shanghai Accord 2.0? World Central Banks Turn On The Money Taps … A New Easing Cycle Has Started

United States

MSCI Inc. provides investment decision support tools to investment institutions worldwide. The Company produces indices and risk and return portfolio analytics for use in managing investment portfolios.

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MSCI Inc (MSCI US)

Understanding Chinese Monetary Policy: Trying Hard to Ease?

Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

The ‘Quick’ Recession … Is It Over Already? Latest Liquidity Data Agrees

Latest nowcast economic data show stronger Q3, 2019 Shipping activity highlights bounce in July and August Global Liquidity conditions turning...

Michael J. Howell

Up, Up and Downnnnnnnn… Why This Crisis Is About Finance (Again) And Not About The Economy

Global Liquidity remains weak Warns of insufficient balance sheet capacity to roll-over our huge debts This creates excess demand for ‘safe’...

Michael J. Howell

The US Fed Steps-Up the Pace – Updating The Shanghai Accord 2.0

Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets Attempts by other economies to...

Michael J. Howell

Shanghai Accord 2.0? World Central Banks Turn On The Money Taps … A New Easing Cycle Has Started

Central Banks Worldwide now easing, led by China's PBoC Our World Central Bank Liquidity Index has more than doubled to 40 (range 0-100) since...

Michael J. Howell

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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