Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.</li><li>As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.</li><li>YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?</li></ul>

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. </li>
<li>Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. </li>
<li>Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.</li>
</ul>


All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. 
Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. 
Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.


Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.94%.</li><li>The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&amp;P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.</li><li>This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.</li></ul>

Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.94%.The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&amp;P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy. As...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Our forward-looking EPS indicators have improved. Yet, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors...

Jeroen Blokland

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&P 500 is +12.83, and...

Water Tower Research