Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.</li>
<li>Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  </li>
<li>While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.</li>
</ul>


Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.
Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  
While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.


Taiyo Yuden (6976):  A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.</li>
<li>Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.</li>
<li>Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.
Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.
Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Global EV sales in 2024 were strong, with forecasts for 2025 looking promising as well, showcasing the growth of the electric vehicle market.</li><li>Asus and Gigabyte secure large AI server orders from Nvidia, highlighting efforts to boost US manufacturing and strengthen partnerships in the tech industry.</li><li>iPhone 16e price hints at a move away from the budget market, indicating a potential shift in Apple's pricing strategy for future phone releases.</li></ul>

Global EV sales in 2024 were strong, with forecasts for 2025 looking promising as well, showcasing the growth of the electric vehicle market.Asus and Gigabyte secure large AI server orders from Nvidia, highlighting efforts to boost US manufacturing and strengthen partnerships in the tech industry.iPhone 16e price hints at a move away from the budget market, indicating a potential shift in Apple's pricing strategy for future phone releases.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global EV sales: 2024 review, 2025 forecast

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks</li>
</ul>


LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

<ul>
<li>US semi-capex rebound setting a better tone for peers in Japan.</li>
<li>Poor numbers for Rohm and Wolfspeed casting a pall over SiC related.</li>
<li>Taiyo Yuden setting a bad tone for MLCC related, while Shiseido may hit new lows.</li>
</ul>


US semi-capex rebound setting a better tone for peers in Japan.
Poor numbers for Rohm and Wolfspeed casting a pall over SiC related.
Taiyo Yuden setting a bad tone for MLCC related, while Shiseido may hit new lows.


Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

Japan

MURATA MANUFACTURING COMPANY, LTD. manufactures and sells ceramic applied electronic components.  The Company's products include filters, capacitors, thermistors, resistors, noise suppression components, coils, piezoelectric sound components, power supplies, sensors, hybrid integrated circuit (IC), and microwave components.

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Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global EV sales: 2024 review, 2025 forecast

Global EV sales review for 2024 with 2025 forecasts, Asus and Gigabyte secure big AI server orders, iPhone 16e price hints at move from budget...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.

Andrew Jackson

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Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

​Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

​Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global EV sales: 2024 review, 2025 forecast

Global EV sales review for 2024 with 2025 forecasts, Asus and Gigabyte secure big AI server orders, iPhone 16e price hints at move from budget...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Will Shiseido Hit New Multi-Year Lows?

​US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.

Andrew Jackson

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Poor SMCI numbers will reflect poorly on AI related plays, Qorvo stands out with strong outlook despite Apple uncertainty, Sony's spin off of...

US semi-capex rebound positive for peers in Japan, but bad tone is set for SiC and MLCC related sectors. Shiseido may see new multi-year lows.