Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.</li><li>This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).</li><li>4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.</li></ul>

Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

<ul><li>Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: New wells deliver flow rates above expectations – The three new Sunburst wells (Gemini #10, #11 and #12) drilled in 4Q22 are now on production and on average are achieving IP30 rates 35% higher than forecast.</li><li>This compares with IP30 production of 120 boe/d gross for a type well.</li><li>Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK – Oil production from Lancaster in December was 7,951 bbl/d with 50% water cut.</li></ul>

Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: New wells deliver flow rates above expectations – The three new Sunburst wells (Gemini #10, #11 and #12) drilled in 4Q22 are now on production and on average are achieving IP30 rates 35% higher than forecast.This compares with IP30 production of 120 boe/d gross for a type well.Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK – Oil production from Lancaster in December was 7,951 bbl/d with 50% water cut.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.</li>
<li>Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.</li>
<li>Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.
Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.
Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

United States

Murphy Oil Corporation is a worldwide oil and gas exploration and production company with refining and marketing operations in the United States and the United Kingdom. The Company also has exploration and production activities in countries that include United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Ecuador. Murphy Oil has retail operations as well in the United States.

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Murphy Oil Corp (MUR US)

Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 13/01/2023

Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK – Oil production from Lancaster in December was 7,951 bbl/d with 50% water cut.

Auctus Advisors

US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

US Dollar $DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX Breaking Out; Broad Equity Market Not Likely to Bottom Until the USD and Treasury Yields Start Moving...

Vermilion Research

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

The market continues to send mixed signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials,...

Vermilion Research

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