Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Murphy USA's first-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected several significant positive and negative trends that investors should consider.</li><li>On the positive side, the company's core Fuel and Tobacco businesses performed exceedingly well.</li><li>For example, APSM fuel gallons remained steady year over-year and even increased by 2% on a two-year stack on comparable retail margins of $0.22 per gallon.</li></ul>

Murphy USA's first-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected several significant positive and negative trends that investors should consider.On the positive side, the company's core Fuel and Tobacco businesses performed exceedingly well.For example, APSM fuel gallons remained steady year over-year and even increased by 2% on a two-year stack on comparable retail margins of $0.22 per gallon.

Murphy USA Inc.:  Strong Performance in the Beverage Category & Other Critical Growth Drivers

<ul><li>In the fourth quarter of 2023, Murphy USA reported solid performance which supports their enduring commitment to drive sustainable value for its stakeholders.</li><li>The company has been successful at achieving more from the same loyal customers, with statistics showing these customers spend 50% more than they did in 2019.</li><li>Furthermore, the company’s new loyalty members showed similar behavior as their most loyal customers in 2019, making about 5 transactions per month and spending at higher levels.</li></ul>

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Murphy USA reported solid performance which supports their enduring commitment to drive sustainable value for its stakeholders.The company has been successful at achieving more from the same loyal customers, with statistics showing these customers spend 50% more than they did in 2019.Furthermore, the company’s new loyalty members showed similar behavior as their most loyal customers in 2019, making about 5 transactions per month and spending at higher levels.

Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Investors should ignore the news around restructuring....it's nice but basically irrelevant</li>
<li>The long-term valuation proposition is driven by the core convenience store businesses in the US and Japan</li>
<li>Unlike Walmart, we think 7&amp;I should have a good quarter in the US and beat analyst expectations for Q1</li>
</ul>


Investors should ignore the news around restructuring....it's nice but basically irrelevant
The long-term valuation proposition is driven by the core convenience store businesses in the US and Japan
Unlike Walmart, we think 7&amp;I should have a good quarter in the US and beat analyst expectations for Q1


Seven & I (3382) | So What if Walmart Missed

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

United States

Murphy USA Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company engages in refining, marketing, and transportation of oil and gas products. Murphy USA provides products and services worldwide.

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Murphy Usa Inc (MUSA US)

Murphy USA Inc.: Strong Performance in the Beverage Category & Other Critical Growth Drivers

Murphy USA's first-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected several significant positive and negative trends that investors should consider. On the...

Baptista Research

Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Murphy USA reported solid performance which supports their enduring commitment to drive sustainable value for its...

Baptista Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Seven & I (3382) | So What if Walmart Missed

We expect the core Convenience business in the US and Japan to perform strongly. This is the key driver of valuations. We expect Q1 results to...

Mark Chadwick

US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

US Dollar $DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX Breaking Out; Broad Equity Market Not Likely to Bottom Until the USD and Treasury Yields Start Moving...

Vermilion Research

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