India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Equity Bottom-Up

Gold Prices have rallied more than 30% y-o-y and ~13% on a y-t-d basis. Muthoot Finance, India’s largest gold finance company, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend as the value of its gold collateral augmented.  High margin of safety has been an inherent strength of the Gold finance business. But what will happen when Gold prices start plummeting?

Gold Prices have rallied more than 30% y-o-y and ~13% on a y-t-d basis. Muthoot Finance, India’s largest gold finance company, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend as the value of its gold collateral augmented.  High margin of safety has been an inherent strength of the Gold finance business. But what will happen when Gold prices start plummeting? 

Muthoot Finance: High Margin of Safety on Gold Loans BUT What Will Happen when Gold Prices Plummet?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st.; and   *Dissatisfied Borrowers: The Supreme Court has now disposed of the 'interest on interest waiver' related petitions where borrowers were satisfied with the interest on interest waiver measures implemented by the RBI and the financial sector. However, there remain other borrowers (ie. power companies) who aren’t satisfied and have proposed further modifications to the RBI’s restructuring scheme.

* RBI Failure To Think Through Moratorium Leads To Continued Uncertainty for India: On September 3, 2020, the Supreme Court of India held a hearing on interest rate waivers for loans under moratorium granted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On September 10th, the Supreme Court clarified: a) the matter under discussion is related to interest on interest payments and not on the interest payments themselves; and b) that banks should not classify loans as NPL for another two month period, if they were not classified NPLs on August 31st.; and   *Dissatisfied Borrowers: The Supreme Court has now disposed of the 'interest on interest waiver' related petitions where borrowers were satisfied with the interest on interest waiver measures implemented by the RBI and the financial sector. However, there remain other borrowers (ie. power companies) who aren’t satisfied and have proposed further modifications to the RBI’s restructuring scheme. 

Reserve Bank of India – The Fun Never Stops

*Results Down, Credibility Up: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line of INR 7.9 bn, declining INR 266 mn (3.3%) on a linked period basis. LIC’s conservatism with respect to provisioning – especially relative to the rest of the Indian financial sector – is quite admirable;*Credit On The Mend: During the period, we note that Stage 3 NPLs declined INR 625 mn (1.1%) to INR 58.8 bn and represent 2.79% of total loans – down 4 bp linked quarter. In addition, we note that net new NPLs at LIC were negative as well – declining INR 586 mn for an annualized rate of NPL decline of 4.0%. Coupled with NCOs of just INR 39 mn  - which amount to just 1 bp of total loans on an annualized basis, we find that reserves improved INR 1.0 bn or 4.0% linked quarter. While we admire LIC’s conservatism relative to peer, we would still be comfortable with reserves being INR 3.3 bn (11.8%) higher. That said, at this pace, LIC should get there within three quarters; and        *Competition Intensifying: Increasing competition could impact profitability, however, with both housing lenders and private banks significantly cutting interest rates.

*Results Down, Credibility Up: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line of INR 7.9 bn, declining INR 266 mn (3.3%) on a linked period basis. LIC’s conservatism with respect to provisioning – especially relative to the rest of the Indian financial sector – is quite admirable;*Credit On The Mend: During the period, we note that Stage 3 NPLs declined INR 625 mn (1.1%) to INR 58.8 bn and represent 2.79% of total loans – down 4 bp linked quarter. In addition, we note that net new NPLs at LIC were negative as well – declining INR 586 mn for an annualized rate of NPL decline of 4.0%. Coupled with NCOs of just INR 39 mn  - which amount to just 1 bp of total loans on an annualized basis, we find that reserves improved INR 1.0 bn or 4.0% linked quarter. While we admire LIC’s conservatism relative to peer, we would still be comfortable with reserves being INR 3.3 bn (11.8%) higher. That said, at this pace, LIC should get there within three quarters; and        *Competition Intensifying: Increasing competition could impact profitability, however, with both housing lenders and private banks significantly cutting interest rates.

LIC Housing Finance – Doing The Right Thing

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

A newly-appointed (on October 9, 2020) deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a>, for discussion, that large systemically-important non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) either convert themselves into banks, or that they contract assets, in order to protect financial stability. This proposal not only has major implications for prominent NBFCs some belonging to industrial houses, but also highlights the regulator’s present lack of capability to regulate such companies. Instead of arguing for the large NBFCs to either become banks or face an eventual demise by setting on a path to shrinking their size, the regulator should be examining how to improve its own regulation and supervision of large NBFCs. The collapses of IL&amp;FS (<a href="https://hemindrahazari.com/2019/01/31/ilfs-collapse-what-happens-when-infrastructure-development-is-privatised-hemindra-hazari/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dewan-housing-finance-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8142:1" rel="noopener">Dewan Housing Finance (DEWH IN)</a> (<a href="https://hemindrahazari.com/2019/01/29/panel-discussion-on-cobrapost-expose-of-dhfl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) were not only a failure of corporate governance and the economic slowdown, but also the consequence of a severe shortfall in regulatory supervision.Financial deregulation and the entry of more players in the strategic financial sector require a more vigilant, intrusive regulator armed with the necessary systems, processes and human resource talent to effectively regulate and supervise the sector. Sadly, the total officer strength of the RBI is currently below the levels of 2015, and it needs to invest in more resources for regulating the NBFC sector instead of proposing to compel large NBFCs to become banks. NBFCs cater to specific needs of the economy which the banks, for whatever reasons, have been unable to address, and while some NBFCs may want to become banks, others owned by industrial houses may not even be permitted to get bank licenses, and some may not even want to become banks. In such a scenario it is imperative for the regulator to implement systems and processes to regulate large NBFCs instead of floating such proposals in the public domain.

A newly-appointed (on October 9, 2020) deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed, for discussion, that large systemically-important non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) either convert themselves into banks, or that they contract assets, in order to protect financial stability. This proposal not only has major implications for prominent NBFCs some belonging to industrial houses, but also highlights the regulator’s present lack of capability to regulate such companies. Instead of arguing for the large NBFCs to either become banks or face an eventual demise by setting on a path to shrinking their size, the regulator should be examining how to improve its own regulation and supervision of large NBFCs. The collapses of IL&amp;FS (here) and Dewan Housing Finance (DEWH IN) (here) were not only a failure of corporate governance and the economic slowdown, but also the consequence of a severe shortfall in regulatory supervision.Financial deregulation and the entry of more players in the strategic financial sector require a more vigilant, intrusive regulator armed with the necessary systems, processes and human resource talent to effectively regulate and supervise the sector. Sadly, the total officer strength of the RBI is currently below the levels of 2015, and it needs to invest in more resources for regulating the NBFC sector instead of proposing to compel large NBFCs to become banks. NBFCs cater to specific needs of the economy which the banks, for whatever reasons, have been unable to address, and while some NBFCs may want to become banks, others owned by industrial houses may not even be permitted to get bank licenses, and some may not even want to become banks. In such a scenario it is imperative for the regulator to implement systems and processes to regulate large NBFCs instead of floating such proposals in the public domain.

RBI Proposal to Convert Large NBFCs into Banks: No Solution to the Problem of Regulatory Failures

*All Good: Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 33.7 bn - increasing INR 3.8 bn (12.6%) linked quarter. From a core operating perspective, we note that HDFC came in at INR 32.0 bn, a whopping INR 15.5 bn (93.4%) increase over FY 1Q21.*Credit Risk Decelerating: The trend in annualized NCOs has declined, by our calculation, to 16 bp from 21 bp in the previous quarter. In addition, the level of net new NPLs has also decelerated to INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis versus 46.6% in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC remained more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 68 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results; and*Positive Operating Jaws: . Key to core operating result performance was: a) net interest income improvement of INR 2.8 bn (8.3%) led by both linked quarter loan growth of 2.0% and NIM improvement of 17 bp to 2.75%; b) an INT 306 mn (7.7%) decline in operating expenses which pushed HDFC’s C/I ratio even lower by 160 bp to 9.2%.

*All Good: Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 33.7 bn - increasing INR 3.8 bn (12.6%) linked quarter. From a core operating perspective, we note that HDFC came in at INR 32.0 bn, a whopping INR 15.5 bn (93.4%) increase over FY 1Q21.*Credit Risk Decelerating: The trend in annualized NCOs has declined, by our calculation, to 16 bp from 21 bp in the previous quarter. In addition, the level of net new NPLs has also decelerated to INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis versus 46.6% in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC remained more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 68 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results; and*Positive Operating Jaws: . Key to core operating result performance was: a) net interest income improvement of INR 2.8 bn (8.3%) led by both linked quarter loan growth of 2.0% and NIM improvement of 17 bp to 2.75%; b) an INT 306 mn (7.7%) decline in operating expenses which pushed HDFC’s C/I ratio even lower by 160 bp to 9.2%.

Housing Development Finance Corp. – “Great Quarter Guys”

India

Muthoot Finance Ltd. is a gold financing company. The Company provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans primarily to individuals who possess gold jewelry but can't access formal credit lines.

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Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN)

Muthoot Finance: High Margin of Safety on Gold Loans BUT What Will Happen when Gold Prices Plummet?

Muthoot Finance, India’s largest gold finance company, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the rise in gold prices. But what will happen...

Saumya Agarwal

Reserve Bank of India – The Fun Never Stops

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: Certain Borrowers Are Dis-Satisfied With "Interest On Interest Waiver" And Proposed Additional Modifications To RBI...

Thomas J. Monaco

LIC Housing Finance – Doing The Right Thing

LIC HOUSING FINANCE: Although Results Were Weaker Linked Quarter, They Were Driven By Higher Credit Costs. This Was Unnecessary Given Credit...

Thomas J. Monaco

RBI Proposal to Convert Large NBFCs into Banks: No Solution to the Problem of Regulatory Failures

Instead of forcible conversion to banks the RBI should ensure that it improves the regulation of important NBFCs so as to ensure that these...

Hemindra Hazari

Housing Development Finance Corp. – “Great Quarter Guys”

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP: Positive Operating Jaws Were Just An Outgrowth Of This Well Oiled Machine. Credit Risk Too Substantially...

Thomas J. Monaco

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