Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.</li>
<li>These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.</li>
<li>Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.</li>
</ul>


The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.
These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.
Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.


A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15425:1">Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF")</a>, lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF"), lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold loans have overtaken home loans by origination value, reaching ~39% of retail disbursals as of December 2025, with the portfolio growing 4x since March 2022 to ~INR3.38 lakh crore.</li>
<li>This is not a cyclical surge. Rising ticket sizes, broader geographic penetration, and tightening unsecured credit have together created a structural demand shift for gold-backed lending.</li>
<li>With RBI's tiered LTV framework live since April 2026, the real test is whether lenders, especially NBFCs, can sustain growth while absorbing tighter compliance costs and monitoring multiple-account borrowers.</li>
</ul>


Gold loans have overtaken home loans by origination value, reaching ~39% of retail disbursals as of December 2025, with the portfolio growing 4x since March 2022 to ~INR3.38 lakh crore.
This is not a cyclical surge. Rising ticket sizes, broader geographic penetration, and tightening unsecured credit have together created a structural demand shift for gold-backed lending.
With RBI's tiered LTV framework live since April 2026, the real test is whether lenders, especially NBFCs, can sustain growth while absorbing tighter compliance costs and monitoring multiple-account borrowers.


Gold Loan: How a Collateral-First Product Became India's Largest Retail Loan

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>India's gold loan portfolio hit INR 16.2 lakh crore by December 2025, a 44% annual jump, driven by regulatory displacement of unsecured lending. </li>
<li>Gold has since corrected 17% from its January 2026 peak, breaching LTV thresholds across the book.</li>
<li>Banks now hold roughly 50% of gold loans (up from 30% in 2020), meaning credit stress is no longer an NBFC-specific risk. </li>
</ul>


India's gold loan portfolio hit INR 16.2 lakh crore by December 2025, a 44% annual jump, driven by regulatory displacement of unsecured lending. 
Gold has since corrected 17% from its January 2026 peak, breaching LTV thresholds across the book.
Banks now hold roughly 50% of gold loans (up from 30% in 2020), meaning credit stress is no longer an NBFC-specific risk. 


India Gold Loans: When Boom Meets a Price Correction

<ul>
<li>Gold loan specialised NBFCs are witnessing aggressive market share erosion as commercial banks leverage lower funding costs to capture nearly 50% of the gold loan sector.</li>
<li>This fierce competition has crashed industry yields to sub-19% levels, severely compressing NIMs and forcing established players into a defensive operating posture.</li>
<li>Lenders are now halting foreclosures to retain existing borrowers while slashing interest rates and expanding branch networks to protect their shrinking market territories.</li>
</ul>


Gold loan specialised NBFCs are witnessing aggressive market share erosion as commercial banks leverage lower funding costs to capture nearly 50% of the gold loan sector.
This fierce competition has crashed industry yields to sub-19% levels, severely compressing NIMs and forcing established players into a defensive operating posture.
Lenders are now halting foreclosures to retain existing borrowers while slashing interest rates and expanding branch networks to protect their shrinking market territories.


Defensive Pivots in Gold Lending: How NBFCs Are Fighting the 50% Banking Takeover?

India

Muthoot Finance Ltd is an Indian non-banking financial company and the largest gold loan NBFC in the country. The company primarily provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewelry, and also offers other loans, insurance, money transfer services, and sells gold coins. It is headquartered in Kochi, Kerala, India, and was founded in 1939.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

Muthoot Finance lends based on gold collateral, with gold prices so much higher now than in the past, there is far less likelihood of defaults. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Gold Loan: How a Collateral-First Product Became India's Largest Retail Loan

Gold loans have surpassed home loans in origination value, now accounting for 39% of retail disbursals as of December 2025, driven by rising...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Gold Loans: When Boom Meets a Price Correction

India's gold loan portfolio surged to INR 16.2 lakh crore by December 2025 due to regulatory changes, but has since dropped 17%, posing credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Defensive Pivots in Gold Lending: How NBFCs Are Fighting the 50% Banking Takeover?

Commercial banks are taking over the gold loan sector, causing market share erosion and forcing specialized NBFCs to lower interest rates and halt...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

​The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Pranav Bhavsar

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

Muthoot Finance lends based on gold collateral, with gold prices so much higher now than in the past, there is far less likelihood of defaults. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Gold Loan: How a Collateral-First Product Became India's Largest Retail Loan

​Gold loans have surpassed home loans in origination value, now accounting for 39% of retail disbursals as of December 2025, driven by rising...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Gold Loans: When Boom Meets a Price Correction

​India's gold loan portfolio surged to INR 16.2 lakh crore by December 2025 due to regulatory changes, but has since dropped 17%, posing credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Defensive Pivots in Gold Lending: How NBFCs Are Fighting the 50% Banking Takeover?

​Commercial banks are taking over the gold loan sector, causing market share erosion and forcing specialized NBFCs to lower interest rates and halt...

Nimish Maheshwari

The 56th GST Council Meeting in New Delhi aims to bring next-generation reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers, but market indicators suggest a...

Gold loans have surpassed home loans in origination value, now accounting for 39% of retail disbursals as of December 2025, driven by rising...

India's gold loan portfolio surged to INR 16.2 lakh crore by December 2025 due to regulatory changes, but has since dropped 17%, posing credit...

Commercial banks are taking over the gold loan sector, causing market share erosion and forcing specialized NBFCs to lower interest rates and halt...