Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the March 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see no changes for NIFTY 50 and three changes for NIFTY 100 (which would result in similar changes to NIFTY Next 50).</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the March 2026 index rebal event.
We see no changes for NIFTY 50 and three changes for NIFTY 100 (which would result in similar changes to NIFTY Next 50).


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Hindustan Aeronautics and Adani Enterprises Close to the Borders

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds &amp; capital efficiency. 
</li>
<li>Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.</li>
<li>Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion &amp; fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.</li>
</ul>


Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds &amp; capital efficiency. 

Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.
Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion &amp; fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.


The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital - A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Capri Global’s foray into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management signals a major shift towards becoming a full-spectrum financial services provider, broadening its business model.</li>
<li>With a target of reaching INR 50,000 crore AUM in the next three years, CGCL is positioning itself for significant expansion in India’s underserved financial segments, highlighting strong growth potential.</li>
<li>By integrating AI, data science, and machine learning into its operations, Capri Global is enhancing underwriting, improving customer acquisition, and streamlining business processes, positioning itself for sustained competitive advantage.</li>
</ul>


Capri Global’s foray into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management signals a major shift towards becoming a full-spectrum financial services provider, broadening its business model.
With a target of reaching INR 50,000 crore AUM in the next three years, CGCL is positioning itself for significant expansion in India’s underserved financial segments, highlighting strong growth potential.
By integrating AI, data science, and machine learning into its operations, Capri Global is enhancing underwriting, improving customer acquisition, and streamlining business processes, positioning itself for sustained competitive advantage.


The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

India

Muthoot Finance Ltd. is a gold financing company. The Company provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans primarily to individuals who possess gold jewelry but can't access formal credit lines.

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Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Hindustan Aeronautics and Adani Enterprises Close to the Borders

We see Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) as the highest-ranked potential ADD and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) as the highest-ranked potential DEL for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital - A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

Northern Arc is shifting to direct retail lending, leveraging partnerships and technology for improved cost efficiency and steady fee income, but...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth

Capri Global diversifies into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management, aiming for INR 50,000 crore AUM in 3 years with AI...

Sudarshan Bhandari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar26: Hindustan Aeronautics and Adani Enterprises Close to the Borders

We see Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) as the highest-ranked potential ADD and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) as the highest-ranked potential DEL for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital - A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

​Northern Arc is shifting to direct retail lending, leveraging partnerships and technology for improved cost efficiency and steady fee income, but...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth

​Capri Global diversifies into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management, aiming for INR 50,000 crore AUM in 3 years with AI...

Sudarshan Bhandari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

Northern Arc is shifting to direct retail lending, leveraging partnerships and technology for improved cost efficiency and steady fee income, but...

Capri Global diversifies into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management, aiming for INR 50,000 crore AUM in 3 years with AI...