Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp-5c356907-201f-4bd8-8190-24de284e1329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50247:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (3661 HK)</a>, a leading analog IC company, has a solid track record of earnings. Its IPO targets to raise net proceeds of HK$4.5bn, which is reasonably sizeable.</li>
<li>The market is expecting 3-year EPS CAGR of 33.1%, putting the IPO price at 59.3x FY26 PER. The 107% earnings growth in 1Q26 affirms its outlook. </li>
<li>We value it on 2.1x PEG, same as global peers, translating into 70x PER, or 18% upside. Our estimated fair value of HK$100.50 means a H-A discount of 34.1%.  </li>
</ul>



SG Micro (3661 HK), a leading analog IC company, has a solid track record of earnings. Its IPO targets to raise net proceeds of HK$4.5bn, which is reasonably sizeable.
The market is expecting 3-year EPS CAGR of 33.1%, putting the IPO price at 59.3x FY26 PER. The 107% earnings growth in 1Q26 affirms its outlook. 
We value it on 2.1x PEG, same as global peers, translating into 70x PER, or 18% upside. Our estimated fair value of HK$100.50 means a H-A discount of 34.1%.  


SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

<ul>
<li>With an aim to raise HK$8.2bn of net proceeds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lingyi-itech-guangdong-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50139:1" rel="noopener">Lingyi iTech (1688 HK)</a>'s H-share IPO is a sizeable one and should attract interest. </li>
<li>Earnings record for this high-precision intelligent manufacturing platform is volatile, but should improve in FY27-28. 1Q26 profit drop is distorted by huge exchange losses.  </li>
<li>Priced at 44.6% discount to its A-share and 27.7x PER, the IPO is inexpensive. Assuming a discount of 26.9%, the fair price (HK$13.43) implies a 32% upside.</li>
</ul>


With an aim to raise HK$8.2bn of net proceeds, Lingyi iTech (1688 HK)'s H-share IPO is a sizeable one and should attract interest. 
Earnings record for this high-precision intelligent manufacturing platform is volatile, but should improve in FY27-28. 1Q26 profit drop is distorted by huge exchange losses.  
Priced at 44.6% discount to its A-share and 27.7x PER, the IPO is inexpensive. Assuming a discount of 26.9%, the fair price (HK$13.43) implies a 32% upside.


Lingyi ITech (1688 HK) IPO: Deserves a Narrower Discount

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp-5c356907-201f-4bd8-8190-24de284e1329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50247:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (3661 HK)</a>, a leading analog IC company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$587 million.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sg-micro-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:242274" rel="noopener">SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 42.3% (based on the close on 16 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.</li>
</ul>



SG Micro (3661 HK), a leading analog IC company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$587 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 42.3% (based on the close on 16 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.


SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lingyi-itech-guangdong-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50139:1" rel="noopener">Lingyi iTech (1688 HK)</a>, a leading intelligent manufacturing platform for electronic devices, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.1 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lingyi-itech-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:242098" rel="noopener">Lingyi ITech H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 44.0% (based on the close on 16 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.</li>
</ul>



Lingyi iTech (1688 HK), a leading intelligent manufacturing platform for electronic devices, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.1 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in Lingyi ITech H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 44.0% (based on the close on 16 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.


Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Valuation Insights

China

Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. conducts pigs farming businesses. The Company provides pigs breeding, raising, slaughtering, processing, and other services. Muyuan Foodstuff also produces animal feed products.

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Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lingyi ITech (1688 HK) IPO: Deserves a Narrower Discount

Lingyi iTech's H-share IPO aims to raise HK$8.2bn, with potential for faster earnings growth in FY27 and FY28. It deserves a narrower discount to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

​SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lingyi ITech (1688 HK) IPO: Deserves a Narrower Discount

​Lingyi iTech's H-share IPO aims to raise HK$8.2bn, with potential for faster earnings growth in FY27 and FY28. It deserves a narrower discount to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights

SG Micro, a leading analog IC company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$587 million. In this note, I discuss the H Share...

Arun George

Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Valuation Insights

Lingyi iTech, a leading intelligent manufacturing platform for electronic devices, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.1 billion. In this...

Arun George

SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...

Lingyi iTech's H-share IPO aims to raise HK$8.2bn, with potential for faster earnings growth in FY27 and FY28. It deserves a narrower discount to...