Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors.</li><li>It’s been a rough month for anything linked to China, including industrially sensitive commodities.</li><li>According to one of the most reliable live gauges of Chinese energy demand—the Singapore Gasoil-Dubai Crude Crack Swap—we are still on a slippery slope toward weaker demand from China.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors.It’s been a rough month for anything linked to China, including industrially sensitive commodities.According to one of the most reliable live gauges of Chinese energy demand—the Singapore Gasoil-Dubai Crude Crack Swap—we are still on a slippery slope toward weaker demand from China.

EM Watch: The Non-Feasible Return of the EM Carry Case Amidst a Global Slowdown

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.</li><li>We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.</li><li>The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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EM Watch: The Non-Feasible Return of the EM Carry Case Amidst a Global Slowdown

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors. It’s...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America. We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts...

Steno Research

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