Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Each month, we offer our best assessment of the current and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions and weigh risks against reward – using both our Macro Regime Indicator Framework in combination with the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li>
<li>Coming into August, we wrote that: “We have (over the prior month) grown in confidence that the Manufacturing cycle is actually bouncing and that portfolios accordingly have to adjust.</li>
<li>This month, we see 1) rising headline, but falling core inflation, 2) rising PMIs and 3) lower liquidity – the so-called ‘QT-regime’.”Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li>
</ul>


Each month, we offer our best assessment of the current and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions and weigh risks against reward – using both our Macro Regime Indicator Framework in combination with the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
Coming into August, we wrote that: “We have (over the prior month) grown in confidence that the Manufacturing cycle is actually bouncing and that portfolios accordingly have to adjust.
This month, we see 1) rising headline, but falling core inflation, 2) rising PMIs and 3) lower liquidity – the so-called ‘QT-regime’.”Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.


Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.</li><li>That benchmark is holding for a third consecutive day and a lower closer on the session today would give the charts an obviously more negative look.</li><li>Still, firm US Retail Sales data yesterday add to signs that the US economy continues to move along at a very decent clip. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.That benchmark is holding for a third consecutive day and a lower closer on the session today would give the charts an obviously more negative look.Still, firm US Retail Sales data yesterday add to signs that the US economy continues to move along at a very decent clip. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Back, GBP Outperforms on CPI

<ul><li>The USD is trading firmly but is off earlier highs on the session as US yields help shape FX trends.</li><li>Slightly firmer than expected PPI figures Friday gave US yields some additional lift before markets slipped modestly on the back of weaker inflation expectations in the U. Michigan data.</li><li>USD sentiment appears to be improving somewhat; Friday’s CFTC data showed some reduction in overall short USD positioning, mainly reflecting a large-ish reduction in net EUR longs over the week. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading firmly but is off earlier highs on the session as US yields help shape FX trends.Slightly firmer than expected PPI figures Friday gave US yields some additional lift before markets slipped modestly on the back of weaker inflation expectations in the U. Michigan data.USD sentiment appears to be improving somewhat; Friday’s CFTC data showed some reduction in overall short USD positioning, mainly reflecting a large-ish reduction in net EUR longs over the week. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firm but Off Early High in Quiet Trade

<ul><li>Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.</li><li>Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

<ul><li>Markets retain a cautious undertone after China reported weaker than expected loan data (new loans dropped to the lowest since 2009), underscoring growth concerns.</li><li>The CNY weakened to its lowest level in a month. Global stocks are trading lower while major bond markets (ex Treasurys are weaker).</li><li>The USD is holding relatively firm amid soft risk sentiment, near yesterday’s high in DXY terms, but gains are not universal, and the dollar index still appears to be encountering resistance in the mid/ upper 102 area after rebounding strongly from the intraday lows seen around the US CPI report yesterday. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Markets retain a cautious undertone after China reported weaker than expected loan data (new loans dropped to the lowest since 2009), underscoring growth concerns.The CNY weakened to its lowest level in a month. Global stocks are trading lower while major bond markets (ex Treasurys are weaker).The USD is holding relatively firm amid soft risk sentiment, near yesterday’s high in DXY terms, but gains are not universal, and the dollar index still appears to be encountering resistance in the mid/ upper 102 area after rebounding strongly from the intraday lows seen around the US CPI report yesterday. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Soft Risk Sentiment

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?

Each month, we offer our best assessment of the current and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions and weigh risks against reward – using both...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Slips Back, GBP Outperforms on CPI

The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firm but Off Early High in Quiet Trade

Slightly firmer than expected PPI figures Friday gave US yields some additional lift before markets slipped modestly on the back of weaker...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Soft Risk Sentiment

Markets retain a cautious undertone after China reported weaker than expected loan data (new loans dropped to the lowest since 2009), underscoring...

Scotiabank

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