Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mytilineos Holdings Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is focused on realising synergies in the group and building its renewable energy sources (RES) business, with its existing industrial assets providing a solid platform for growth. In our view, €1bn/year in EBITDA looks achievable in FY23 and would reset earnings at a higher level. We are increasing our valuation from €36/share to €45/share, in part due to the growth of its RES business, partly funded by its asset rotation strategy.

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is focused on realising synergies in the group and building its renewable energy sources (RES) business, with its existing industrial assets providing a solid platform for growth. In our view, €1bn/year in EBITDA looks achievable in FY23 and would reset earnings at a higher level. We are increasing our valuation from €36/share to €45/share, in part due to the growth of its RES business, partly funded by its asset rotation strategy.

Mytilineos - Synergies and solar delivering growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Mytilineos released strong Q123 results on 4 May, despite scheduled maintenance in its power business and Q1 being a typically weaker quarter. The year 2023 is likely to be H2 weighted, because scheduled maintenance at Mytilineos’s Ag. Nikolas plant is now complete and its new highly efficient power plant is entering full commercial operation. This strong performance during a period of low energy and metal prices reinforces our view that our FY23 estimates are conservative. EBITDA of €225m was 24% of our FY23 estimate (€931m) and EPS of €1.04 was 27.5%. Net profit after minorities of €143m was up 113% year on year. These results reflect the underlying change to Mytilineos’s synergistic business model to focus on two key activities: Energy (renewables, electricity generation and natural gas supply) and Metallurgy. H223 will see the full operation of its gas plants and continued rollout of renewables – the latter a key focus of its >€2bn capex programme over the next three years.

Mytilineos released strong Q123 results on 4 May, despite scheduled maintenance in its power business and Q1 being a typically weaker quarter. The year 2023 is likely to be H2 weighted, because scheduled maintenance at Mytilineos’s Ag. Nikolas plant is now complete and its new highly efficient power plant is entering full commercial operation. This strong performance during a period of low energy and metal prices reinforces our view that our FY23 estimates are conservative. EBITDA of €225m was 24% of our FY23 estimate (€931m) and EPS of €1.04 was 27.5%. Net profit after minorities of €143m was up 113% year on year. These results reflect the underlying change to Mytilineos’s synergistic business model to focus on two key activities: Energy (renewables, electricity generation and natural gas supply) and Metallurgy. H223 will see the full operation of its gas plants and continued rollout of renewables – the latter a key focus of its >€2bn capex programme over the next three years.

Mytilineos - Benefiting from diversity and internationalisation

Greece

Mytilineos Holdings S.A. is an industrial group and an independent energy producer. The Company's activities include aluminum and base metals production, energy and infrastructure projects construction, production of thermal power and supply and trade of natural gas.

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Mytilineos Holdings Sa (MYTIL GA)

Mytilineos - Synergies and solar delivering growth

Mytilineos (MYTIL) is continuing to deliver on its transformation into a simpler structure based on two pillars, Energy and Metals. Its strategy is...

Edison Investment Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Mytilineos - Benefiting from diversity and internationalisation

Mytilineos released strong Q123 results on 4 May, despite scheduled maintenance in its power business and Q1 being a typically weaker quarter. The...

Edison Investment Research

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