Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. </li>
<li>The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. </li>
<li>Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.</li>
</ul>


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. 
The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. 
Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.
</div>


When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.


Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ur-energy-inc-845bf87b-f51b-4d57-8b7e-f6696dc23213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39270:1" rel="noopener">Ur-Energy (URG US)</a> in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

IsoEnergy (ISO CN) will replace Ur-Energy (URG US) in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

Kazakhstan

NAC Kazatomprom JSC produces and markets minerals. The Company specializes in natural uranium production. NAC Kazatomprom also imports and exports uranium compounds, nuclear power plant fuel, and uranium components. NAC Kazatomprom serves customers worldwide.

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NAC Kazatomprom JSC (KAP LI)

Uranium: Fuelling Fears

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains....

David Blennerhassett

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The...

Tatiana Orlova

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

IsoEnergy will replace Ur-Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

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