Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

Asia gaming and consumer discretionary analyst

Michael Ting

<p>Suncity is establishing a strong regional portfolio of gaming operations in Asia with the most significant near-term driver being the HOIANA integrated resort in Vietnam. We are positive on HOIANA on a longer term basis. However, given the current macro uncertainty involving COVID-19 along with only an expected gradual resumption of international travel, we do not expect HOIANA to significantly contribute to Suncity's profits until FY22.</p>

Suncity is establishing a strong regional portfolio of gaming operations in Asia with the most significant near-term driver being the HOIANA integrated resort in Vietnam. We are positive on HOIANA on a longer term basis. However, given the current macro uncertainty involving COVID-19 along with only an expected gradual resumption of international travel, we do not expect HOIANA to significantly contribute to Suncity's profits until FY22.

Suncity Group Holdings (1383 HK) - Strong Portfolio but Needs Time

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

<p>In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/438/original/1.jpg?1547412238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75438"></figure>

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

Cambodia

NagaCorp is an investment holding company that manages and operates NagaWorld, an integrated hotel and casino complex in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. It offers gaming, luxury accommodations, dining, entertainment, and convention facilities. The company holds a 70-year casino license until 2065 and has exclusive rights to operate casinos within a 200-kilometer radius of Phnom Penh until 2045. NagaCorp was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

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NagaCorp (3918 HK)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Suncity Group Holdings (1383 HK) - Strong Portfolio but Needs Time

Suncity has a strong regional portfolio of gaming operations in Asia whic

Michael Ting

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays. Change in M1 typically...

JL Warren Capital

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Dividend (Yield)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

​2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Suncity Group Holdings (1383 HK) - Strong Portfolio but Needs Time

Suncity has a strong regional portfolio of gaming operations in Asia whic

Michael Ting

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays. Change in M1 typically...

JL Warren Capital

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...