IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> recommended a KKR/JICC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY3,300, representing an 87.9% premium to the undisturbed price and a 5.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals and is scheduled to start at the end of July. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>The offer comes with caveats: the Board recommendation is not unanimous, the lower limit is set below the two-thirds threshold, and KKR offered a higher price during the discussions. </li>
</ul>



Topcon Corp (7732 JP) recommended a KKR/JICC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY3,300, representing an 87.9% premium to the undisturbed price and a 5.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals and is scheduled to start at the end of July. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. 
The offer comes with caveats: the Board recommendation is not unanimous, the lower limit is set below the two-thirds threshold, and KKR offered a higher price during the discussions. 


Topcon (7732 JP): KKR/JICC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO, with Caveats

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> reported flat sales of ¥30B in 9MFY25. Sales of surgical kit products rose 3.2%, to ¥20B, of which Premium Kit sales climbed 7.8%, to ¥13.2B.</li>
<li>Higher costs dented operating margin by 40 bps while net profit rose 5% YoY to ¥2.7B due to an extraordinary gain from sale of investment.</li>
<li>The company reiterated guidance for FY25 of a rise in sales of 5% to ¥40.9B, with profits also witnessing double digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥30B in 9MFY25. Sales of surgical kit products rose 3.2%, to ¥20B, of which Premium Kit sales climbed 7.8%, to ¥13.2B.
Higher costs dented operating margin by 40 bps while net profit rose 5% YoY to ¥2.7B due to an extraordinary gain from sale of investment.
The company reiterated guidance for FY25 of a rise in sales of 5% to ¥40.9B, with profits also witnessing double digit growth.


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Results Reflect Macro Slackness, Not Much Recovery In Sight In Near Term

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mani-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6534:1" rel="noopener">Mani Inc (7730 JP)</a> Q1FY25 revenue rose 8% YoY, mainly driven by surgical and eyeless needles segments, and favorable foreign exchange. However, profitability declined year-over-year.</li>
<li>Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Dental segment contributes more than 30% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Mani shares plunged 20% since it published its Q1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.</li>
</ul>



Mani Inc (7730 JP) Q1FY25 revenue rose 8% YoY, mainly driven by surgical and eyeless needles segments, and favorable foreign exchange. However, profitability declined year-over-year.
Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Dental segment contributes more than 30% of total revenue.
Mani shares plunged 20% since it published its Q1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.


Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a> shares rose 51% over two days, confirming a Bloomberg report that is conducting a privatisation auction. The process is in the second round of bids.</li>
<li>Exploring the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Topcon has materially underperformed the Nikkei 225 since its last medium-term management term plan was announced on 12 May 2023.</li>
<li>Despite the share price pop, Topcon trades at a discount to median peer multiples. At an offer of JPY3,000, Topcon would trade in line with median peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Topcon Corp (7732 JP) shares rose 51% over two days, confirming a Bloomberg report that is conducting a privatisation auction. The process is in the second round of bids.
Exploring the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Topcon has materially underperformed the Nikkei 225 since its last medium-term management term plan was announced on 12 May 2023.
Despite the share price pop, Topcon trades at a discount to median peer multiples. At an offer of JPY3,000, Topcon would trade in line with median peer multiples.


Topcon (7732 JP): Privatisation Auction Underscores Underlying Value

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nakanishi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20823:1" rel="noopener">Nakanishi Inc (7716 JP)</a> guided for 25% revenue growth to ¥74B for 2024, driven by an additional ¥12B revenue contribution from DCI and 6% growth in dental business to ¥47B.</li>
<li>EBITDA is expected to improve from 2025 due to normalization of the personnel expenses and depreciation. 2026 EBITDA margin (26.8%) will improve significantly over 2024 (23.9%).</li>
<li>Amid slow global consumption, Nakanishi’s cost-effective products offer strong value proposition. The company is expected to meet 2024 guidance and no negative surprise (downward revision in last year) is expected.</li>
</ul>



Nakanishi Inc (7716 JP) guided for 25% revenue growth to ¥74B for 2024, driven by an additional ¥12B revenue contribution from DCI and 6% growth in dental business to ¥47B.
EBITDA is expected to improve from 2025 due to normalization of the personnel expenses and depreciation. 2026 EBITDA margin (26.8%) will improve significantly over 2024 (23.9%).
Amid slow global consumption, Nakanishi’s cost-effective products offer strong value proposition. The company is expected to meet 2024 guidance and no negative surprise (downward revision in last year) is expected.


Nakanishi Inc (7716 JP): Acquisition and Fx to Nourish Topline; Margin Expansion in Near-Term

Japan

NAKANISHI INC. manufactures gyration equipment for dental and industry use. The Company's products include precision spindles and hand-held grinders.

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Nakanishi Inc (7716 JP)

Topcon (7732 JP): KKR/JICC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO, with Caveats

The offer, which resulted from a competitive bidding process, represents an all-time high. However, it comes with caveats that could complicate...

Arun George

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Results Reflect Macro Slackness, Not Much Recovery In Sight In Near Term

Hogy Medical reports flat sales but sees growth in surgical kit products, with net profit rising 5% YoY due to extraordinary gain. Company...

Tina Banerjee

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Loosing Shine In China; Margins Eroding; FY25 Guidance Reiterated

Mani's Q1FY25 revenue was up 8% YoY driven by surgical and eyeless needles, but profitability declined. Dental segment continued to underperform....

Tina Banerjee

Topcon (7732 JP): Privatisation Auction Underscores Underlying Value

Despite the share price pop, Topcon trades at a discount to median peer multiples. At an offer of JPY3,000, Topcon would trade in line with median...

Arun George