Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...</li>
<li>...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...
...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.


Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Management Addresses Recently Closed US$2.5B Strategic Placement. SanDisk, Kioxia, SK Hynix's Solidigm, and Cisco took 10.19% of Nanya Technology (2408 TT) to lock in legacy DRAM supply.</li>
<li>
FY1Q26 Confirms Supply-Driven Tightness That Will Persist. Nanya reported 67.9% gross margin with ASPs +&gt;70% QoQ on falling bit shipments; management cannot satisfy market demand this year.</li>
<li>
Close Our Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> / Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> Pair. SK has rallied to new highs while Nanya has retraced from its peak.</li>
</ul>



Management Addresses Recently Closed US$2.5B Strategic Placement. SanDisk, Kioxia, SK Hynix's Solidigm, and Cisco took 10.19% of Nanya Technology (2408 TT) to lock in legacy DRAM supply.

FY1Q26 Confirms Supply-Driven Tightness That Will Persist. Nanya reported 67.9% gross margin with ASPs +&gt;70% QoQ on falling bit shipments; management cannot satisfy market demand this year.

Close Our Long SK Hynix (000660 KS) / Short Nanya Technology (2408 TT) Pair. SK has rallied to new highs while Nanya has retraced from its peak.


Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

<ul>
<li>Legacy DRAM has shifted to a truly sellers' market, with buyers unable to  secure full order quantities as lead times extend to months.</li>
<li>HBM and DDR5 capacity reallocation by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is squeezing legacy supply, creating openings for Taiwanese specialty producers.</li>
<li>IoT demand is accelerating, while large buyers actively dual-source amid geopolitical uncertainty and Chinese capacity expansion.</li>
</ul>


Legacy DRAM has shifted to a truly sellers' market, with buyers unable to  secure full order quantities as lead times extend to months.
HBM and DDR5 capacity reallocation by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is squeezing legacy supply, creating openings for Taiwanese specialty producers.
IoT demand is accelerating, while large buyers actively dual-source amid geopolitical uncertainty and Chinese capacity expansion.


TechChain Insights Q&A: Legacy DRAM Squeeze -- How AI's Capacity Grab Is Reshaping the Memory Market

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest was USD41.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, MediaTek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest was USD41.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, MediaTek.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, MediaTek

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights Q&A: Legacy DRAM Squeeze -- How AI's Capacity Grab Is Reshaping the Memory Market

Legacy DRAM market is now a true "sellers' market", as lead times extend and capacity reallocation squeezes supply, creating opportunities for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, MediaTek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

Why Nanya Results and Placement Mean Memory Tightness to Last Much Longer; Close SK Hynix/Nanya Pair

​Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights Q&A: Legacy DRAM Squeeze -- How AI's Capacity Grab Is Reshaping the Memory Market

​Legacy DRAM market is now a true "sellers' market", as lead times extend and capacity reallocation squeezes supply, creating opportunities for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology, MediaTek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, UMC, Zhen Ding Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nanya investors secure legacy DRAM supply with US$2.5B placement, Nanya enjoying supply-driven tightness as ASPs soar, consider closing long SK...

Legacy DRAM market is now a true "sellers' market", as lead times extend and capacity reallocation squeezes supply, creating opportunities for...