Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.</li>
<li>The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.</li>
<li>Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.
The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.
Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.


Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.</li>
<li>Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.</li>
<li>Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.
Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.
Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

<ul>
<li>Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech &amp; Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron's valuation has reverted vs. Nanya's.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.</li>
<li>We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.</li>
</ul>


Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech &amp; Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron's valuation has reverted vs. Nanya's.
Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.
We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.


Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.
Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron's weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.
Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron and SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View

We update our relative performance view for the three major Memory names. Also, look for Nanya Tech to provide color on the Memory cycle -- Will...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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