Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.</li>
<li>As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.</li>
<li>CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. </li>
</ul>


CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.
As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. 


IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     </li>
<li>Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.</li>
<li>Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.</li>
</ul>


Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     
Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.
Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.


SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

<ul>
<li>AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.</li>
<li>There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.</li>
<li>We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.</li>
</ul>


AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.
There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.
We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.


Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,366.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD839mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, Delta Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,366.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD839mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics, Delta Electronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD41.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics, Wistron, Walsin Technology, Nanya Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD41.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics, Wistron, Walsin Technology, Nanya Technology.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics, Wistron

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

​Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

​AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, TSMC, Zhen Ding Technology, Winbond...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Gold Circuit Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...