Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.</li>
<li>There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.</li>
</ul>


Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.
However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.
There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.


Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.</li>
<li>The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.</li>
<li>Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.
The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.
Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.


Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names</li>
<li>Intel conference could be catalyst for Intel Long/Short, CEO will be giving a keynote on company's new direction</li>
<li>AMD meeting many Taiwan-listed companies, Hon Hai EV platform closes new deal in Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names
Intel conference could be catalyst for Intel Long/Short, CEO will be giving a keynote on company's new direction
AMD meeting many Taiwan-listed companies, Hon Hai EV platform closes new deal in Indonesia


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Forecasts This Week, Intel Conference, AMD CEO to Visit Taiwan Suppliers

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>The US Commerce Department is likely to expand China restrictions for the sale of chips and chip manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>Impact for major Taiwan-listed suppliers appears minimal so far; Inventec is one name with potential exposure.</li>
<li>Not Made in China: More signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.</li>
</ul>


The US Commerce Department is likely to expand China restrictions for the sale of chips and chip manufacturing equipment.
Impact for major Taiwan-listed suppliers appears minimal so far; Inventec is one name with potential exposure.
Not Made in China: More signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Restrictions on Tech Sales to China to Expand

<ul>
<li>US bans high end chip sales to China, Nvidia shares sink in reaction, as do Nvida suppliers and the overall sector.</li>
<li>Broadcom's fiscal Q3 results beat expectations and its optimistic outlook bucks the industry trend.</li>
<li>Yulon motors soars 9%; its JV with Hon Hai has received 10,000 EV pre-orders in two days.</li>
</ul>


US bans high end chip sales to China, Nvidia shares sink in reaction, as do Nvida suppliers and the overall sector.
Broadcom's fiscal Q3 results beat expectations and its optimistic outlook bucks the industry trend.
Yulon motors soars 9%; its JV with Hon Hai has received 10,000 EV pre-orders in two days.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: More Nvidia Issues, Broadcom Surprises, Yulon Soars

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Forecasts This Week, Intel Conference, AMD CEO to Visit Taiwan Suppliers

Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names. AMD CEO to meet with many Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Restrictions on Tech Sales to China to Expand

Also more signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: More Nvidia Issues, Broadcom Surprises, Yulon Soars

Nvidia shares sink in reaction to US banning high-end chip sales to China, Taiwan's Nvida suppliers and the overall sector fall as well. Broadcom...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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