New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, but with valuation fair on a bond-rate-adjusted basis, we downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>We expect pricing growth to moderate from FY27, while the near-term cargo volume backdrop is mixed, with a positive outlook for containers and downside risk for logs.</li><li>NPH’s strategic initiatives are tracking well, and we expect its container transformation project to deliver credible productivity and cost benefits from FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, but with valuation fair on a bond-rate-adjusted basis, we downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.We expect pricing growth to moderate from FY27, while the near-term cargo volume backdrop is mixed, with a positive outlook for containers and downside risk for logs.NPH’s strategic initiatives are tracking well, and we expect its container transformation project to deliver credible productivity and cost benefits from FY28.

Napier Port 1H26 Result—The Ship Has Sailed

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, slightly above our expectations.</li><li>EBITDA of NZ$37.3m was up +13% on the prior year.</li><li>Underlying NPAT grew +21% year on year to NZ$17.9m.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, slightly above our expectations.EBITDA of NZ$37.3m was up +13% on the prior year.Underlying NPAT grew +21% year on year to NZ$17.9m.

Napier Port (NPH.NZ) - 1H26 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Napier Port’s (NPH) 1H26 cargo volumes were modestly higher than the prior year and broadly in line with our expectations.</li><li>NPH’s 1H26 trade volumes support our view that NPH is tracking above the top end of management’s NZ$70m–NZ$74m EBITDA guidance range (vs our NZ$77m forecast).</li><li>Growth in higher-margin container volumes (particularly reefers) is likely only partially offset by softer bulk volumes, while the decline in cruise remains a weak spot but is in line with expectations.</li></ul>

Napier Port’s (NPH) 1H26 cargo volumes were modestly higher than the prior year and broadly in line with our expectations.NPH’s 1H26 trade volumes support our view that NPH is tracking above the top end of management’s NZ$70m–NZ$74m EBITDA guidance range (vs our NZ$77m forecast).Growth in higher-margin container volumes (particularly reefers) is likely only partially offset by softer bulk volumes, while the decline in cruise remains a weak spot but is in line with expectations.

Napier Port (NPH.NZ): 1H26 Cargo Volumes – On the Right Tack

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.</li><li>First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.</li><li>Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.</li><li>Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.</li><li>NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Napier Port 1H26 Result—The Ship Has Sailed

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, but with valuation fair on a bond-rate-adjusted basis, we downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from...

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