New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, slightly above our expectations.</li><li>EBITDA of NZ$37.3m was up +13% on the prior year.</li><li>Underlying NPAT grew +21% year on year to NZ$17.9m.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 1H26 result, slightly above our expectations.EBITDA of NZ$37.3m was up +13% on the prior year.Underlying NPAT grew +21% year on year to NZ$17.9m.

Napier Port (NPH.NZ) - 1H26 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Napier Port’s (NPH) 1H26 cargo volumes were modestly higher than the prior year and broadly in line with our expectations.</li><li>NPH’s 1H26 trade volumes support our view that NPH is tracking above the top end of management’s NZ$70m–NZ$74m EBITDA guidance range (vs our NZ$77m forecast).</li><li>Growth in higher-margin container volumes (particularly reefers) is likely only partially offset by softer bulk volumes, while the decline in cruise remains a weak spot but is in line with expectations.</li></ul>

Napier Port’s (NPH) 1H26 cargo volumes were modestly higher than the prior year and broadly in line with our expectations.NPH’s 1H26 trade volumes support our view that NPH is tracking above the top end of management’s NZ$70m–NZ$74m EBITDA guidance range (vs our NZ$77m forecast).Growth in higher-margin container volumes (particularly reefers) is likely only partially offset by softer bulk volumes, while the decline in cruise remains a weak spot but is in line with expectations.

Napier Port (NPH.NZ): 1H26 Cargo Volumes – On the Right Tack

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Australia’s port operators, known as stevedoring companies in Australia, are coming under increasing scrutiny for aggressive increases in landside charges including terminal access charges (TAC) and vehicle booking system (VBS) fees.</li><li>The ACCC now considers government policy or a regulatory response is likely to be required.</li><li>However, the fact that many New Zealand ports are still underearning their cost of capital means that any regulatory interference is unlikely at this stage.</li></ul>

Australia’s port operators, known as stevedoring companies in Australia, are coming under increasing scrutiny for aggressive increases in landside charges including terminal access charges (TAC) and vehicle booking system (VBS) fees.The ACCC now considers government policy or a regulatory response is likely to be required.However, the fact that many New Zealand ports are still underearning their cost of capital means that any regulatory interference is unlikely at this stage.

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.</li><li>First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.</li><li>Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

<ul>
<li>Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.</li>
<li>Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.</li>
<li>An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.</li>
</ul>


Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.
Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.
An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.


Transport Trends - Fuel Costs Have Cracked

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)