Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I have received several questions from readers on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. </li>
<li>The questions primarily concerned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. </li>
<li>CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  </li>
</ul>


I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  


Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35985:1" rel="noopener">CALB (CALBLZ CH)</a> are pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion, US$2.0 billion and US$2.0 billion HKEx IPOs, respectively.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - DTAC/True, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mydeal-com-au-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30939:1" rel="noopener">MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Leapmotor (2007699D HK), Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) and CALB (CALBLZ CH) are pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion, US$2.0 billion and US$2.0 billion HKEx IPOs, respectively.
Event-Driven developments - DTAC/True, Giordano International (709 HK), Link Administration (LNK AU), MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (11 Sep) - Giordano, DTAC/True, Link Admin, Nitro, Tyro, Ramsay, CALB, Onewo

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>’s scheme meeting date has been set for 7 September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>’s A$0.208 per share is its best and final offer.</li>
<li>The Board hoped that the threat of a discounted equity raise and Pfizer’s final offer would sway the retail shareholders’ NO vote camp. However, there remains a vocal NO camp.</li>
<li>The headcount test remains a key risk. The upside (9.5% spread to the offer) vs downside (likely equity raise at a huge discount) is an unfavourable risk/reward profile.</li>
</ul>



Resapp Health (RAP AU)’s scheme meeting date has been set for 7 September. Pfizer Inc (PFE US)’s A$0.208 per share is its best and final offer.
The Board hoped that the threat of a discounted equity raise and Pfizer’s final offer would sway the retail shareholders’ NO vote camp. However, there remains a vocal NO camp.
The headcount test remains a key risk. The upside (9.5% spread to the offer) vs downside (likely equity raise at a huge discount) is an unfavourable risk/reward profile.


ResApp’s Scheme Meeting on 7 September Still Faces Headcount Test Risk

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> H Share's flat debut, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>'s listing approval for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, DTAC/True </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) H Share's flat debut, Leapmotor (2007699D HK)'s listing approval for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO.
Event-Driven developments - Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), DTAC/True 


Weekly Deals Digest (28 Aug) - Leapmotor, DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, Infomedia, ResApp

Australia

ResApp Health Limited focuses on developing respiratory disease diagnosis and management mobile phone application technology. The Company offers respiratory diagnosis applications for mobile phones. ResApp Health serves customers in Australia.

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Resapp Health (RAP AU)

Taxing Times For Australia

The Government's release of Re:think, its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the...

Sam Ferraro

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Readers have asked about CITIC Resources' voting intentions, the probability of a bump, and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Sep) - Giordano, DTAC/True, Link Admin, Nitro, Tyro, Ramsay, CALB, Onewo

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (DTAC/True, Giordano, Link Admin, Nitro, Tyro, MyDeal, ResApp, Ramsay) and ECM (CALB,...

Arun George

ResApp’s Scheme Meeting on 7 September Still Faces Headcount Test Risk

The headcount test remains a key risk. The upside (9.5% spread to the offer) vs downside (likely equity raise at a huge discount) is an...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (28 Aug) - Leapmotor, DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, Infomedia, ResApp

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, ResApp, Infomedia, Nearmap, MACA, Lifestyle) and...

Arun George

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