Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 2.3bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, some financials.</li>
<li>As outperformed Hs on Monday and Tuesday (when both were open), then Hs rocketed on Thursday and Friday. As will have to catch up early in the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 2.3bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, some financials.
As outperformed Hs on Monday and Tuesday (when both were open), then Hs rocketed on Thursday and Friday. As will have to catch up early in the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There should be over 1x ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and over 1x ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (2822 HK) in September.
There should be over 1x ADV to buy on NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and over 1x ADV to sell on Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH). 
There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres


Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,861.7 million, led by consumer staples, financials, materials sectors, and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Eoptolink Technology Inc.,, Imeik Technology Development, Zijin Mining, Bank Of Jiangsu, Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,861.7 million, led by consumer staples, financials, materials sectors, and offset by communication services.
We highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Eoptolink Technology Inc.,, Imeik Technology Development, Zijin Mining, Bank Of Jiangsu, Midea.


Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

China

NARI Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells automation products for electricity distribution, converting stations, coal-fired power plants, and industrial process. The Company also provides services and system integration.

NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

NORTHBOUND saw net buying and in general A-shares outperformed HK stocks on Monday and Tuesday, but mainland markets were closed the rest of the...

Travis Lundy

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

There could be two sets of the changes for the 2823/2822 ETFs in September. A couple of stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade. There are few close...

Brian Freitas

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM