Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...</li>
<li>...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support</li>
<li>Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish</li>
</ul>


Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...
...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> has closed down for 2 weeks in a row. Our models say another WEEKLY Close down will push the probability of reversal to 80%.
</li>
<li>From a price model perspective the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">NDX</a>'s correction has been mild, it did not even reach the 25% probability of reversal so far. Potentially a bullish indication.
</li>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">NDX</a> continues to trend down this week, look at the 20388 support price area to start accumulation, the probability of reversal will be &gt;50% past that point. </li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) has closed down for 2 weeks in a row. Our models say another WEEKLY Close down will push the probability of reversal to 80%.

From a price model perspective the NDX's correction has been mild, it did not even reach the 25% probability of reversal so far. Potentially a bullish indication.

If the NDX continues to trend down this week, look at the 20388 support price area to start accumulation, the probability of reversal will be &gt;50% past that point. 


Is the Nasdaq100 (NDX INDEX) Correction Over? A Restart of the Uptrend May Be Just Around the Corner

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.</li>
<li>Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.</li>
<li>The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.
</li>
</ul>


Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.
Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.
The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.



2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> is in a steady bear market with political turmoil further depressing the outlook. Volatility increased in the near term, leading to an inverted term structure.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 50</a> is approaching its 50-day average from below. Call options profit from low implied volatility and present an attractive opportunity to profit on the upside.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a> continues to stand out as the index with positive correlation between implied volatility and index performance. Interestingly, the relationship is not symmetric between up- and down moves.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 is in a steady bear market with political turmoil further depressing the outlook. Volatility increased in the near term, leading to an inverted term structure.
The Nifty 50 is approaching its 50-day average from below. Call options profit from low implied volatility and present an attractive opportunity to profit on the upside.
The Hang Seng continues to stand out as the index with positive correlation between implied volatility and index performance. Interestingly, the relationship is not symmetric between up- and down moves.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).</li>
<li>Energy Technology (14.1% of the index) was up 1.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was up 3.0%.</li>
<li>
Top 10 Performers: OPTT, KULR, ALLIF, ACHR, BLDE, FCEL, INVZ, EGT, AMMP, NRGV
</li>
</ul>


The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).
Energy Technology (14.1% of the index) was up 1.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was up 3.0%.

Top 10 Performers: OPTT, KULR, ALLIF, ACHR, BLDE, FCEL, INVZ, EGT, AMMP, NRGV



Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Stardust Power, Inc. (SDST)

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Is the Nasdaq100 (NDX INDEX) Correction Over? A Restart of the Uptrend May Be Just Around the Corner

The Nasdaq100 Index has closed down for 2 weeks, mild correction so far, potentially bullish setup. Look at 20800-20388 support area for LONG...

Nico Rosti

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Option strategies with a focus on Asia. The Kospi 200 in a bear market amid political turmoil. Nifty 50 approaching its 50-day average in a bullish...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Stardust Power, Inc. (SDST)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).

Water Tower Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Is the Nasdaq100 (NDX INDEX) Correction Over? A Restart of the Uptrend May Be Just Around the Corner

The ​Nasdaq100 Index has closed down for 2 weeks, mild correction so far, potentially bullish setup. Look at 20800-20388 support area for LONG...

Nico Rosti

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Option strategies with a focus on Asia. The Kospi 200 in a bear market amid political turmoil. Nifty 50 approaching its 50-day average in a bullish...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Stardust Power, Inc. (SDST)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).

Water Tower Research

The Nasdaq100 Index has closed down for 2 weeks, mild correction so far, potentially bullish setup. Look at 20800-20388 support area for LONG...