Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 21 June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> while the estimated selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> is smaller.</li>
<li>There could be passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) will replace Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) in the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) after the close of trading on 21 June.
Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of ARM Holdings (ARM US) while the estimated selling in Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) is smaller.
There could be passive selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.3% of the index) was up by 11.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.4% of the index) was up by 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 6.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.3% of index) was down 6.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: VIEW, PEV, PEGY, LIDR, BRDS, VIHD, ARVL, CPWHF, BE, NXT</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).Energy Technology (14.3% of the index) was up by 11.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.4% of the index) was up by 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 6.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.3% of index) was down 6.7%.Top 10 Performers: VIEW, PEV, PEGY, LIDR, BRDS, VIHD, ARVL, CPWHF, BE, NXT

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended May 24, 2024

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tech Lobby opposes India's antitrust law, fearing cost hikes and investment hurdles.</li>
<li>Apple's China iPhone shipments surge 52% in May, driven by discounts and sales preparation.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100 Futures rise on Apple's China surge, but global markets remain cautious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tech Lobby opposes India's antitrust law, fearing cost hikes and investment hurdles.
Apple's China iPhone shipments surge 52% in May, driven by discounts and sales preparation.
Nasdaq 100 Futures rise on Apple's China surge, but global markets remain cautious.


#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended May 24, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).

Water Tower Research

#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor

Nimish Maheshwari

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended May 24, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).

Water Tower Research

#6Business Buzz: Tech Giants Clash in India, Apple Triumphs in China, Nasdaq Rises

​U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor

Nimish Maheshwari

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

U.S. Tech Lobby wary of India's antitrust law; Apple's China iPhone shipments surge, Malaysia investment in Semiconductor