Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What's Changed?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.</li>
<li>Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI's due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. </li>
<li>October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).</li>
</ul>


SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.
Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI's due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. 
October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Risk pivots and action points into our late September capitulation cycle with a granular look at intraday SPX, NDX and DXY wedge patterns. DJI new low leads.</li>
<li>September 27/28 cycle date with a secondary timeline in early October. Need final touches into new lows for a turn signal. 27-28 capitulation that leads to a key low.</li>
<li>Impulsive yield rise fits with a blow off yield move toward 4.19% projection with DXY to 115.40 and an SPX crack to a new low (3,530 once below 3,650).</li>
</ul>


Risk pivots and action points into our late September capitulation cycle with a granular look at intraday SPX, NDX and DXY wedge patterns. DJI new low leads.
September 27/28 cycle date with a secondary timeline in early October. Need final touches into new lows for a turn signal. 27-28 capitulation that leads to a key low.
Impulsive yield rise fits with a blow off yield move toward 4.19% projection with DXY to 115.40 and an SPX crack to a new low (3,530 once below 3,650).


Risk Pivots and Color into Late September

<ul>
<li>Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.</li>
<li>RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.</li>
<li>SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.</li>
</ul>


Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.
RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.
SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.


United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What's Changed?

A weekly look at Global Index Volatility changes. We analyse moves over the last week in terms of spot, vol and skew and screen for possible trade...

Simon Harris

SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze. We...

Thomas Schroeder

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Risk Pivots and Color into Late September

Risk pivots and action points into our late September capitulation cycle with a granular look at intraday SPX, NDX and DXY wedge patterns. DJI new...

Thomas Schroeder

RTY Support Inflection Break

Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our...

Thomas Schroeder