EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>National Oilwell Varco (NOV) concluded a solid 2024 with notable achievements, amidst both favorable and challenging market conditions.</li>
<li>For Q4 2024, revenue climbed 5% sequentially to $2.31 billion, culminating in a total annual revenue of $8.87 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year.</li>
<li>The company's net income for the year stood at $635 million or $1.60 per diluted share, highlighting improved profitability despite subdued global drilling activity.</li>
</ul>


National Oilwell Varco (NOV) concluded a solid 2024 with notable achievements, amidst both favorable and challenging market conditions.
For Q4 2024, revenue climbed 5% sequentially to $2.31 billion, culminating in a total annual revenue of $8.87 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year.
The company's net income for the year stood at $635 million or $1.60 per diluted share, highlighting improved profitability despite subdued global drilling activity.


NOV Inc.: A Focus On Operational Efficiency & Cost Management...

<ul>
<li>NOV Inc., a leading provider in the oil and gas equipment and services sector, presented its third quarter 2024 earnings with mixed results amidst a dynamic and challenging global macro environment.</li>
<li>During the quarter, NOV reported revenues of $2.19 billion, a modest increase from the third quarter of 2023 yet a slight 1% decrease from the second quarter of 2024.</li>
<li>The company achieved a net income of $130 million or $0.33 per fully diluted share, depicting an improvement from the previous year.</li>
</ul>


NOV Inc., a leading provider in the oil and gas equipment and services sector, presented its third quarter 2024 earnings with mixed results amidst a dynamic and challenging global macro environment.
During the quarter, NOV reported revenues of $2.19 billion, a modest increase from the third quarter of 2023 yet a slight 1% decrease from the second quarter of 2024.
The company achieved a net income of $130 million or $0.33 per fully diluted share, depicting an improvement from the previous year.


NOV Inc.:  Emerging Deepwater Infrastructure Investments

<ul>
<li>NOV Inc. has reported a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, with revenues reaching $2.22 billion, indicating a 6% increase compared to the same period in 2023.</li>
<li>Notably, international markets demonstrated double-digit growth, and the offshore sector grew by 6%, contrasting with a slight 1% decline in North American sales.</li>
<li>The company achieved a net income of $226 million or $0.57 per fully diluted share, an improvement from the previous year.</li>
</ul>


NOV Inc. has reported a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, with revenues reaching $2.22 billion, indicating a 6% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
Notably, international markets demonstrated double-digit growth, and the offshore sector grew by 6%, contrasting with a slight 1% decline in North American sales.
The company achieved a net income of $226 million or $0.57 per fully diluted share, an improvement from the previous year.


NOV Inc.: International & Offshore Markets Expansion & Expansion Into Renewables Catalyzing Growth!

<ul><li>NOV Inc.'s Q1 2024 financial results showed that revenues reached $2.16 billion, a 10% increase compared to Q1 2023, despite a decline in earnings per share from the previous year.</li><li>NOV reported a net income of $119 million or $0.30 per fully diluted share.</li><li>The reduced earnings per share were attributed to a higher effective tax rate and reduced income from the company's joint venture.</li></ul>

NOV Inc.'s Q1 2024 financial results showed that revenues reached $2.16 billion, a 10% increase compared to Q1 2023, despite a decline in earnings per share from the previous year.NOV reported a net income of $119 million or $0.30 per fully diluted share.The reduced earnings per share were attributed to a higher effective tax rate and reduced income from the company's joint venture.

NOV Inc.: Strong International Activity in Production and Midstream Business! - Major Drivers

United States

NOV Inc offers equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company serves customers worldwide.

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NOV (NOV US)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

NOV Inc.: A Focus On Operational Efficiency & Cost Management...

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) concluded a solid 2024 with notable achievements, amidst both favorable and challenging market conditions.

Baptista Research

NOV Inc.: Emerging Deepwater Infrastructure Investments

During the quarter, NOV reported revenues of $2.19 billion, a modest increase from the third quarter of 2023 yet a slight 1% decrease from the...

Baptista Research

NOV Inc.: International & Offshore Markets Expansion & Expansion Into Renewables Catalyzing Growth!

NOV Inc. has reported a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, with revenues reaching $2.22 billion, indicating a 6% increase compared...

Baptista Research

NOV Inc.: Strong International Activity in Production and Midstream Business! - Major Drivers

NOV Inc.'s Q1 2024 financial results showed that revenues reached $2.16 billion, a 10% increase compared to Q1 2023, despite a decline in earnings...

Baptista Research

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