External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In 2026, the Federal Government approved further amendments to the Refinery Policy.</li><li>The Board of Directors has authorised management to execute the upgrade agreement under the amended Policy.</li><li>Due to the above-mentioned charges, the company booked a loss after tax of Rs2.9bn in 4QFY26.</li></ul>

In 2026, the Federal Government approved further amendments to the Refinery Policy.The Board of Directors has authorised management to execute the upgrade agreement under the amended Policy.Due to the above-mentioned charges, the company booked a loss after tax of Rs2.9bn in 4QFY26.

Topline Flash Note: National Refinery (NRL) - Annual Report Key Takeaways

<ul><li>Management expects the refinery policy to be finalized at the earliest, as most outstanding issues have already been resolved.</li><li>Management stated that as drug prices now adjust annually in line with the inflation, the company is structurally well positioned to benefit from pricing deregulation as 80% of its portfolio comprises of non-essential medicines.</li><li>The biosimilar portfolio features seven high-value products, establishing a strong market presence to capture a significant share of the global biosimilars market, which is expected to reach US$66.9bn by 2028.</li></ul>

Management expects the refinery policy to be finalized at the earliest, as most outstanding issues have already been resolved.Management stated that as drug prices now adjust annually in line with the inflation, the company is structurally well positioned to benefit from pricing deregulation as 80% of its portfolio comprises of non-essential medicines.The biosimilar portfolio features seven high-value products, establishing a strong market presence to capture a significant share of the global biosimilars market, which is expected to reach US$66.9bn by 2028.

Investor Connect 2026 | Karachi – NRL: Refinery Policy to Be Finalized at the Earliest; SEARL: New Launches to Drive Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Government has notified amendments to the Pakistan Oil Refining Policy 2023 (Brownfield Refinery Upgradation).</li><li>The amendments address the issues that had stalled execution of Upgrade Agreements (UAs) after the Finance Act 2024 moved major petroleum products from the zero-rated to the exempt sales tax regime, which disallowed input tax claims for refineries.</li><li>We view the notification of the amended policy as positive for listed refineries, particularly PRL, NRL and ATRL, as it materially improves the visibility of long-delayed upgrade projects.</li></ul>

The Government has notified amendments to the Pakistan Oil Refining Policy 2023 (Brownfield Refinery Upgradation).The amendments address the issues that had stalled execution of Upgrade Agreements (UAs) after the Finance Act 2024 moved major petroleum products from the zero-rated to the exempt sales tax regime, which disallowed input tax claims for refineries.We view the notification of the amended policy as positive for listed refineries, particularly PRL, NRL and ATRL, as it materially improves the visibility of long-delayed upgrade projects.

Pakistan Refinery - Ministry Has Notified Amended Refining Policy; What has Changed?, Next Milestone: Signing by Refineries

<ul><li>We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn.</li><li>The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher Gross Refinery Margins (GRMs), coupled with higher upliftment.</li><li>Industry GRMs are expected to clock in at US$27.6/bbl in 1QFY27, compared with US$6.5/bbl in 1QFY26 and US$29.0/bbl in 4QFY26.</li></ul>

We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn.The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher Gross Refinery Margins (GRMs), coupled with higher upliftment.Industry GRMs are expected to clock in at US$27.6/bbl in 1QFY27, compared with US$6.5/bbl in 1QFY26 and US$29.0/bbl in 4QFY26.

Pakistan Refinery - Refinery Profitability Likely to Remain Robust in 1QFY27; Stronger GRMs and Higher Upliftment Lifted Profitability

<ul><li>Lucky Cement plans to expand solar capacity at its Karachi plant by 15MW, which will take its total installed solar capacity to 89.3MW upon completion.</li><li>International operations remain a key growth area, with around 15.6MTPA of cement capacity in Pakistan and 5MTPA outside Pakistan, including Congo and Iraq.</li><li>We maintain our BUY call with a FY27F PE of 5.8x.</li></ul>

Lucky Cement plans to expand solar capacity at its Karachi plant by 15MW, which will take its total installed solar capacity to 89.3MW upon completion.International operations remain a key growth area, with around 15.6MTPA of cement capacity in Pakistan and 5MTPA outside Pakistan, including Congo and Iraq.We maintain our BUY call with a FY27F PE of 5.8x.

Topline Flash Note: Lucky Cement (LUCK) - AGM Key Takeaways

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National Refinery (NRL PA)

Topline Flash Note: National Refinery (NRL) - Annual Report Key Takeaways

In 2026, the Federal Government approved further amendments to the Refinery Policy. The Board of Directors has authorised management to execute...

Topline Securities

Investor Connect 2026 | Karachi – NRL: Refinery Policy to Be Finalized at the Earliest; SEARL: New Launches to Drive Growth

Management expects the refinery policy to be finalized at the earliest, as most outstanding issues have already been resolved. Management stated...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Refinery - Ministry Has Notified Amended Refining Policy; What has Changed?, Next Milestone: Signing by Refineries

The Government has notified amendments to the Pakistan Oil Refining Policy 2023 (Brownfield Refinery Upgradation). The amendments address the...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Refinery - Refinery Profitability Likely to Remain Robust in 1QFY27; Stronger GRMs and Higher Upliftment Lifted Profitability

We expect aggregate earnings of the covered refineries to increase 11.1x YoY and 6.0x QoQ to Rs38.9bn. The YoY increase is mainly driven by higher...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Lucky Cement (LUCK) - AGM Key Takeaways

Lucky Cement plans to expand solar capacity at its Karachi plant by 15MW, which will take its total installed solar capacity to 89.3MW upon...

Topline Securities

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