Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

National Retail Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Gordon's Growth Model suggests National Retail Properties is severely undervalued.</li>
<li>In addition, a seasonal ARIMA model indicates the REIT's dividend yield might be sustainable.</li>
<li>The REIT could be an outlier in 2023, according to the Gordon's growth model.</li>
</ul>


The Gordon's Growth Model suggests National Retail Properties is severely undervalued.
In addition, a seasonal ARIMA model indicates the REIT's dividend yield might be sustainable.
The REIT could be an outlier in 2023, according to the Gordon's growth model.


Our Models Suggest National Retail Properties Could Surge

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<figure>
 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-01/DiSa-CEO.jpg' alt='DiSa CEO' />
 </figure>
 <div class='content-caption'>DiSa CEO</div>
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It all began with a shoplifting incident in a German supermarket.

SGX-listed digital security firm DiSa Ltd was born from a germ of an idea in entrepreneur Eddie Chng’s mind 10 years ago after seeing a thief in action. “It was September 2009, and we were in Berlin for the IFA consumer electronics trade show,” he recalled.

“On our way to dinner, we had stopped by a supermarket to buy batteries. That was when I saw a man slip some SD cards into the pockets of his winter jacket, and walk out of the store without paying.”

A pithy comment then by a friend – “Shoplifting is rampant in Europe, and if anyone can solve this problem, it will be big business!” – lingered in Chng’s mind long after the incident.

“As an engineer, my inspiration has always been fixing a problem with a solution that no one has thought of yet,” he said. “So a year later, after much research, we came up with an anti-theft technology for retailers that makes electronic devices non-functional, until they are activated by a PIN code at the point of purchase.”

However, getting retailers to adopt the technology proved to be an uphill battle. The small retail stores in Germany were reluctant to pay, and after nearly two years of fruitless cold calls and knocking on doors, Chng turned his attention to the US market.

DiSa charges manufacturers and suppliers for the technology, but to get manufacturers to sign on, the company focused on reaching out to retailers, since the latter stand to lose most from theft. If retailers are keen to use the technology, their manufacturers will have to include it in their products, Chng reasoned.

“We changed our strategy to focus on the big boys in the US – it was a tough journey, but it was the right decision. As the Chinese proverb goes, first the bitter, then the sweet,” he smiled. 
 

Overcoming Hurdles

It took a year of pitching and canvassing before he secured a meeting with the country’s largest retailer, and another 12 months before the first proof-of-concept testing took place in September 2016. Finally, in May 2017, after proving the technology worked, the retail giant implemented DiSa’s Point-of-Sale Activation (PoSA) solution in its 5,000 stores across the US, for products ranging from tablets and GPS devices to digital cameras and TV sets.

“You have to overcome a myriad of obstacles to succeed in the US, and for a Chinaman like me entering the market, it’s been really fulfilling and gruelling at the same time,” Chng said.

“We believe that if we can secure the top five retailers in the US as our clients, we will be able to set the standard for retail security in the country.”

Retail theft – known as shrink – has a huge financial impact on the world’s largest economy. In 2018, the average shrink rate was 1.38%, costing the US an estimated US$50.6 billion. About two-thirds of shrink came from shoplifting, organised retail crime and employee theft, according to data from the 2015-2019 National Retail Security Survey.

“DiSa has essentially reinvented the retail experience for customers, suppliers and retailers, as our technology enables a true open-sell experience, reduces shrink and eliminates return fraud,” he noted.

This also allows for better product placement in stores, as the items are not encumbered by physical locks, bulky cables or glass cabinets. Traditional locks and cables can also be broken easily with the right tools. “Stores that have implemented this open-sell experience effectively see a 20% average sales lift,” he added.

“While it may be too early to say that DiSa has succeeded, we certainly have secured a ticket to embark on a successful journey in this market.”

Making A Comeback

This could constitute the beginnings of a comeback for Chng, who faced several setbacks with his business ventures two decades ago. In 2003, he emerged as a white knight for financially troubled garment retailer and property developer Heshe Holdings. The company was subsequently renamed Equation Summit, and then DiSa.

This milestone marked a new chapter in his entrepreneurial journey. “Basically, in this brutal world of entrepreneurship, you need tenacity, perseverance and belief in what you can do.”

“Passion keeps you going, yes. But at the end of the day, it’s all about your product having commercial value,” he added.

DiSa’s name is coined from the first two syllables of the word “digital safety”. Listed on SGX Catalist since 1992, it has a current market capitalisation of about S$20 million. Chng, who has held leadership roles in diverse fields spanning product research and development, innovation, marketing and sales, was appointed DiSa’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer in February 2005.

The Group’s PoSA solution, which incorporates Smart Barcodes, fully protects a product from manufacturing through to point-of-sale, making the device non-functional until purchased and activated. Its Smart Gates sensors allow retailers to set alarms and display unpaid items, while Smart Checkout lets shoppers complete their purchases by digitally scanning their products without having to remove items from their cart.

The Group has also introduced Smart Barcodes to the food retail sector. This tool empowers both retailers and consumers to track expiry dates, production batches and ingredients, so as to prevent food spoilage.

So far, DiSa has made good progress in its efforts to boost adoption of its asset protection technology. In 2018, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics equipped its state-of-the-art Galaxy Tab A 8.0 model with the DiSa Smart Lock protection, which renders stolen tablets non-operational. Swagtron, a maker of electric rideables in the US, also uses DiSa’s Smart Barcode technology in its classic hoverboards to combat retail theft and return fraud.

Last March, US organic produce supplier Bailey Produce tagged its bananas with Smart Barcode technology, which tracks each fruit bunch from farm to table. Singapore telco M1 has also partnered with DiSa to roll out the first-of-its-kind mobile phone warranty programme protecting phone users against cyber theft. If phone users suffer financial losses from theft of their e-wallets, they can make a claim on DiSa’s website for an amount up to the retail cost of the phone. Every device under the warranty programme will also be equipped with DiSa’s Smart Barcode system.

Dreaming Big

 

Looking ahead, the Group plans to proliferate its technology and platform across US retail stores to build its footprint. “We want to be the standard for asset protection in the country. It’s a very big dream, it’s a very tough dream, but I think we have a good shot at achieving it.”

“There are also high barriers of entry to this market, and we have the first-mover advantage,” he added.

Another factor in DiSa’s favour is that, despite the rapid acceleration of e-commerce sales, the US market remains dominated by brick-and-mortar retail stores. “The majority of consumers still prefer to drive to stores to shop. There’s also the P-U-T or Pick Up Today trend, where shoppers buy online and collect their items offline,” Chng noted.

With the roll-out of 5G wireless networks gaining traction globally, the disruption of normal routines is inevitable. “DiSa is ready to harness opportunities arising from disruptive technologies,” he added.

And with greater deployment of artificial intelligence in all aspects of daily life, DiSa remains optimistic that adoption rates for PoSA, serialisation – an anti-theft solution for non-electronics items like apparel, shoes and bags – as well as other asset protection solutions, will grow.

“We’ve disrupted retail shrink with our technology, and we’re confident it will see widespread adoption in the US.”

The biggest challenge, however, is stemming the flow of red ink, Chng admitted. “We’re in investment mode and still burning cash. With our existing cash resources, we’re confident that the 2020/2021 financial year will be a better one.”

For the financial year ended 30 June 2019, DiSa reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of S$17.0 million. Cash and cash equivalents stood at about S$13 million, which includes S$50,000 in pledged deposits.

Outside the office, Chng can be found with his two daughters, aged 21 and 23, and his son, 25. “I want my kids to grow up to be well-rounded and holistic individuals. I don’t need them to score straight As or be overly focused on grades – education is about progression, not perfection.”

He emphasises simple values – don’t judge, always respect others. “I always believe that you must focus on the fundamentals first,” he said.

“You will be able to accomplish the bigger things only after you get the basics right.”

DiSa Ltd

DiSa, listed on SGX Catalist since 1992, focuses on leveraging in-house R&amp;D capabilities to innovate and digitalise new products and services using disruptive technologies. Since 2006, the Group, which has offices in Singapore, China and the US, has actively reviewed its businesses to focus on high-value services with long-term potential, while divesting non-core segments to complement its growth. Its technology solutions for the retail industry include the Point-of-Sale Activation (PoSA) Smart Lock, the world’s first digital asset-protection solution that discourages theft by making consumer electronics products non-functional until purchased and activated.  
The company website is: <a href="https://digital-safety.com/">digital-safety.com.</a> 
Click <a href="https://www2.sgx.com/securities/equities/532">here</a> for the company's StockFacts page. 
For the three months ended 30 September 2019 financial results, click <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/CGWODPEXR8KU1XGQ/2019-11-08%20-%20DL%20-%201Q2020%20Results.pdf">here</a>.

About kopi-C: the Company brew

Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file kopi-C is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations. 
For previous editions of kopi-C: the Company brew, please click <a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBd-CspB86%24MfB90noBAABR54ZH/link10">here</a>.   
For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to <a href="jennifer.t@sgx.com">jennifer.t@sgx.com</a>.
</body></html>


      
    
    DiSa CEO


It all began with a shoplifting incident in a German supermarket.

SGX-listed digital security firm DiSa Ltd was born from a germ of an idea in entrepreneur Eddie Chng’s mind 10 years ago after seeing a thief in action. “It was September 2009, and we were in Berlin for the IFA consumer electronics trade show,” he recalled.

“On our way to dinner, we had stopped by a supermarket to buy batteries. That was when I saw a man slip some SD cards into the pockets of his winter jacket, and walk out of the store without paying.”

A pithy comment then by a friend – “Shoplifting is rampant in Europe, and if anyone can solve this problem, it will be big business!” – lingered in Chng’s mind long after the incident.

“As an engineer, my inspiration has always been fixing a problem with a solution that no one has thought of yet,” he said. “So a year later, after much research, we came up with an anti-theft technology for retailers that makes electronic devices non-functional, until they are activated by a PIN code at the point of purchase.”

However, getting retailers to adopt the technology proved to be an uphill battle. The small retail stores in Germany were reluctant to pay, and after nearly two years of fruitless cold calls and knocking on doors, Chng turned his attention to the US market.

DiSa charges manufacturers and suppliers for the technology, but to get manufacturers to sign on, the company focused on reaching out to retailers, since the latter stand to lose most from theft. If retailers are keen to use the technology, their manufacturers will have to include it in their products, Chng reasoned.

“We changed our strategy to focus on the big boys in the US – it was a tough journey, but it was the right decision. As the Chinese proverb goes, first the bitter, then the sweet,” he smiled. 
 

Overcoming Hurdles

It took a year of pitching and canvassing before he secured a meeting with the country’s largest retailer, and another 12 months before the first proof-of-concept testing took place in September 2016. Finally, in May 2017, after proving the technology worked, the retail giant implemented DiSa’s Point-of-Sale Activation (PoSA) solution in its 5,000 stores across the US, for products ranging from tablets and GPS devices to digital cameras and TV sets.

“You have to overcome a myriad of obstacles to succeed in the US, and for a Chinaman like me entering the market, it’s been really fulfilling and gruelling at the same time,” Chng said.

“We believe that if we can secure the top five retailers in the US as our clients, we will be able to set the standard for retail security in the country.”

Retail theft – known as shrink – has a huge financial impact on the world’s largest economy. In 2018, the average shrink rate was 1.38%, costing the US an estimated US$50.6 billion. About two-thirds of shrink came from shoplifting, organised retail crime and employee theft, according to data from the 2015-2019 National Retail Security Survey.

“DiSa has essentially reinvented the retail experience for customers, suppliers and retailers, as our technology enables a true open-sell experience, reduces shrink and eliminates return fraud,” he noted.

This also allows for better product placement in stores, as the items are not encumbered by physical locks, bulky cables or glass cabinets. Traditional locks and cables can also be broken easily with the right tools. “Stores that have implemented this open-sell experience effectively see a 20% average sales lift,” he added.

“While it may be too early to say that DiSa has succeeded, we certainly have secured a ticket to embark on a successful journey in this market.”

Making A Comeback

This could constitute the beginnings of a comeback for Chng, who faced several setbacks with his business ventures two decades ago. In 2003, he emerged as a white knight for financially troubled garment retailer and property developer Heshe Holdings. The company was subsequently renamed Equation Summit, and then DiSa.

This milestone marked a new chapter in his entrepreneurial journey. “Basically, in this brutal world of entrepreneurship, you need tenacity, perseverance and belief in what you can do.”

“Passion keeps you going, yes. But at the end of the day, it’s all about your product having commercial value,” he added.

DiSa’s name is coined from the first two syllables of the word “digital safety”. Listed on SGX Catalist since 1992, it has a current market capitalisation of about S$20 million. Chng, who has held leadership roles in diverse fields spanning product research and development, innovation, marketing and sales, was appointed DiSa’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer in February 2005.

The Group’s PoSA solution, which incorporates Smart Barcodes, fully protects a product from manufacturing through to point-of-sale, making the device non-functional until purchased and activated. Its Smart Gates sensors allow retailers to set alarms and display unpaid items, while Smart Checkout lets shoppers complete their purchases by digitally scanning their products without having to remove items from their cart.

The Group has also introduced Smart Barcodes to the food retail sector. This tool empowers both retailers and consumers to track expiry dates, production batches and ingredients, so as to prevent food spoilage.

So far, DiSa has made good progress in its efforts to boost adoption of its asset protection technology. In 2018, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics equipped its state-of-the-art Galaxy Tab A 8.0 model with the DiSa Smart Lock protection, which renders stolen tablets non-operational. Swagtron, a maker of electric rideables in the US, also uses DiSa’s Smart Barcode technology in its classic hoverboards to combat retail theft and return fraud.

Last March, US organic produce supplier Bailey Produce tagged its bananas with Smart Barcode technology, which tracks each fruit bunch from farm to table. Singapore telco M1 has also partnered with DiSa to roll out the first-of-its-kind mobile phone warranty programme protecting phone users against cyber theft. If phone users suffer financial losses from theft of their e-wallets, they can make a claim on DiSa’s website for an amount up to the retail cost of the phone. Every device under the warranty programme will also be equipped with DiSa’s Smart Barcode system.

Dreaming Big

 

Looking ahead, the Group plans to proliferate its technology and platform across US retail stores to build its footprint. “We want to be the standard for asset protection in the country. It’s a very big dream, it’s a very tough dream, but I think we have a good shot at achieving it.”

“There are also high barriers of entry to this market, and we have the first-mover advantage,” he added.

Another factor in DiSa’s favour is that, despite the rapid acceleration of e-commerce sales, the US market remains dominated by brick-and-mortar retail stores. “The majority of consumers still prefer to drive to stores to shop. There’s also the P-U-T or Pick Up Today trend, where shoppers buy online and collect their items offline,” Chng noted.

With the roll-out of 5G wireless networks gaining traction globally, the disruption of normal routines is inevitable. “DiSa is ready to harness opportunities arising from disruptive technologies,” he added.

And with greater deployment of artificial intelligence in all aspects of daily life, DiSa remains optimistic that adoption rates for PoSA, serialisation – an anti-theft solution for non-electronics items like apparel, shoes and bags – as well as other asset protection solutions, will grow.

“We’ve disrupted retail shrink with our technology, and we’re confident it will see widespread adoption in the US.”

The biggest challenge, however, is stemming the flow of red ink, Chng admitted. “We’re in investment mode and still burning cash. With our existing cash resources, we’re confident that the 2020/2021 financial year will be a better one.”

For the financial year ended 30 June 2019, DiSa reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of S$17.0 million. Cash and cash equivalents stood at about S$13 million, which includes S$50,000 in pledged deposits.

Outside the office, Chng can be found with his two daughters, aged 21 and 23, and his son, 25. “I want my kids to grow up to be well-rounded and holistic individuals. I don’t need them to score straight As or be overly focused on grades – education is about progression, not perfection.”

He emphasises simple values – don’t judge, always respect others. “I always believe that you must focus on the fundamentals first,” he said.

“You will be able to accomplish the bigger things only after you get the basics right.”

DiSa Ltd

DiSa, listed on SGX Catalist since 1992, focuses on leveraging in-house R&amp;D capabilities to innovate and digitalise new products and services using disruptive technologies. Since 2006, the Group, which has offices in Singapore, China and the US, has actively reviewed its businesses to focus on high-value services with long-term potential, while divesting non-core segments to complement its growth. Its technology solutions for the retail industry include the Point-of-Sale Activation (PoSA) Smart Lock, the world’s first digital asset-protection solution that discourages theft by making consumer electronics products non-functional until purchased and activated.   
The company website is: digital-safety.com.  
Click here for the company's StockFacts page.  
For the three months ended 30 September 2019 financial results, click here.

About kopi-C: the Company brew

Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file  kopi-C is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations.  
For previous editions of kopi-C: the Company brew, please click here.    
For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to jennifer.t@sgx.com.



AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process that Spirit Realty has been undergoing over the past year towards becoming a conventional triple net lease REIT  with the goal of closing its large valuation gap to its primary peers. There have since been significant developments which are likely to accelerate the process, notably the announcement on June 3, 2019 that Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US) will sell the assets of its Master Trust in a process that will lead to its liquidation. Closing of the transaction is targeted by the end of 3Q 2019 at which time Spirit Realty' will receive gross proceeds od ~$260 MN from SMTA, which in addition to the expected ~$450 MN of net proceeds that will be available from its recent public offering, significantly increases Spirit Realty's deployable growth capital. Moreover, Spirit Realty's external management contract with SMTA will be replaced by a much more modest interim version to help manage the sale of SMTA's remaining assets.Since our previous insight on Spirit Realty, the shares have risen by 12% in value, and are up ~30% since the start of the year. Still, our updated valuation thesis indicates further value upside of  ~20% plus as Spirit Realty continues its progress in narrowing its valuation gap relative to peers. But, our valuation assessment could prove quite conservative given the significant increase in deployable capital that Spirit Realty will enjoy. Furthermore, having already received a credit rating upgrade from S&amp;P Global following the public stock offer launch, we expect both Moody's and Fitch to follow suit with the latest SMTA news only  being another source of encouragement.

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process that Spirit Realty has been undergoing over the past year towards becoming a conventional triple net lease REIT  with the goal of closing its large valuation gap to its primary peers. There have since been significant developments which are likely to accelerate the process, notably the announcement on June 3, 2019 that Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US) will sell the assets of its Master Trust in a process that will lead to its liquidation. Closing of the transaction is targeted by the end of 3Q 2019 at which time Spirit Realty' will receive gross proceeds od ~$260 MN from SMTA, which in addition to the expected ~$450 MN of net proceeds that will be available from its recent public offering, significantly increases Spirit Realty's deployable growth capital. Moreover, Spirit Realty's external management contract with SMTA will be replaced by a much more modest interim version to help manage the sale of SMTA's remaining assets.Since our previous insight on Spirit Realty, the shares have risen by 12% in value, and are up ~30% since the start of the year. Still, our updated valuation thesis indicates further value upside of  ~20% plus as Spirit Realty continues its progress in narrowing its valuation gap relative to peers. But, our valuation assessment could prove quite conservative given the significant increase in deployable capital that Spirit Realty will enjoy. Furthermore, having already received a credit rating upgrade from S&amp;P Global following the public stock offer launch, we expect both Moody's and Fitch to follow suit with the latest SMTA news only  being another source of encouragement.

SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US) -Transition To Be Completed Sooner Than Expected

On May 31, 2018,  Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US), a triple net lease REIT that is primarily focused on single tenant retail real estate in the US, completed the spin-off of its lower quality and debt encumbered assets into a vehicle named Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US). But, as we approach the first anniversary of the spin-off event, we believe it is worthwhile revisiting the situation since we continue to identify Spirit Realty as an attractive misvaluation opportunity, particularly as it has entered the last phase of its transition into a more typical triple net lease REIT which we believe should catalyze a value re-rating in the coming quarters.Our valuation thesis points to a shareholder return well in excess of 20% (including the dividend) that should be achievable within a year if the aforementioned last phase of its transition progresses as expected.

On May 31, 2018,  Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US), a triple net lease REIT that is primarily focused on single tenant retail real estate in the US, completed the spin-off of its lower quality and debt encumbered assets into a vehicle named Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA US). But, as we approach the first anniversary of the spin-off event, we believe it is worthwhile revisiting the situation since we continue to identify Spirit Realty as an attractive misvaluation opportunity, particularly as it has entered the last phase of its transition into a more typical triple net lease REIT which we believe should catalyze a value re-rating in the coming quarters.Our valuation thesis points to a shareholder return well in excess of 20% (including the dividend) that should be achievable within a year if the aforementioned last phase of its transition progresses as expected. 

SpinTalk:Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US)- A Rising Spirit

United States

National Retail Properties Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company acquires, develops, and manages retail properties. National Retail Properties serves customers in the State of Florida.

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National Retail Properties (NNN US)

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

Our Models Suggest National Retail Properties Could Surge

The Gordon's Growth Model suggests National Retail Properties is severely undervalued. In addition, a seasonal ARIMA model indicates the REIT's...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

DiSa: Redefining the Retail Experience

It all began with a shoplifting incident in a German supermarket. SGX-listed digital security firm DiSa Ltd was born from a...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US) -Transition To Be Completed Sooner Than Expected

On April 24, 2019, we published an insight- SpinTalk: Spirit Realty Capital - A Rising Spirit - in which we highlighted the transitioning process...

Robert Sassoon

SpinTalk:Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US)- A Rising Spirit

On May 31, 2018, Spirit Realty Capital (SRC US), a triple net lease REIT that is primarily focused on single tenant retail real estate in the US,...

Robert Sassoon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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