Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

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Data-Driven Commodity Research

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<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second week in a row, remaining at 585 for the week ending on 01/Nov.</li>
<li>In August, US oil production hit a record 13.4 million bpd, up 1.5% MoM, while natural gas output dipped 0.6% to 115.9 Bcf per day.</li>
<li>For the week ending 01/Nov, US energy producers added one rig each in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Utah, while cutting two rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second week in a row, remaining at 585 for the week ending on 01/Nov.
In August, US oil production hit a record 13.4 million bpd, up 1.5% MoM, while natural gas output dipped 0.6% to 115.9 Bcf per day.
For the week ending 01/Nov, US energy producers added one rig each in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Utah, while cutting two rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma.


US Rig Count Unchanged for Second Week as Gas Rigs Offset Oil Decline

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. </li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. 
US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.


[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Dutch TTF is trading at its highest YTD price as supply is getting hit on various fronts.</li><li>Firstly, as a consequence of the Houthis shenanigans in the Red Sea, Egypt has now become a net importer of LNG creating extra demand for potential European buying.</li><li>Secondly, Norway has had to do unplanned maintenance on their pips towards Europe along with delayed LNG supply from the US due to weather.</li></ul>

Dutch TTF is trading at its highest YTD price as supply is getting hit on various fronts.Firstly, as a consequence of the Houthis shenanigans in the Red Sea, Egypt has now become a net importer of LNG creating extra demand for potential European buying.Secondly, Norway has had to do unplanned maintenance on their pips towards Europe along with delayed LNG supply from the US due to weather.

The Drill – Time to play the Natural Gas case again?

<ul>
<li>US nat-gas prices rose 13.4% for the week ending 25/Oct, after falling for three straight weeks. This uptrend was driven by favourable weather forecasts, reduced output, and rising LNG exports.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 1.08 (25/Oct) from 1.54 (18/Oct) the previous week as call volumes increased by 94.5% WoW, while put volumes grew by 35.9%. </li>
<li>Put OI rose for contracts expiring in November, April, and May, while call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expiries. </li>
</ul>


US nat-gas prices rose 13.4% for the week ending 25/Oct, after falling for three straight weeks. This uptrend was driven by favourable weather forecasts, reduced output, and rising LNG exports.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 1.08 (25/Oct) from 1.54 (18/Oct) the previous week as call volumes increased by 94.5% WoW, while put volumes grew by 35.9%. 
Put OI rose for contracts expiring in November, April, and May, while call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expiries. 


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/43] Henry Hub Rebounds on Better Demand Forecasts and Reduced Output

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

US Rig Count Unchanged for Second Week as Gas Rigs Offset Oil Decline

For the week ending 01/Nov, the US rig count remained unchanged again at 585. Oil rigs fell by 1 and gas rigs rose by 1. US oil production grew by...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

The Drill – Time to play the Natural Gas case again?

Dutch TTF is trading at its highest YTD price as supply is getting hit on various fronts. Firstly, as a consequence of the Houthis shenanigans in...

Steno Research

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/43] Henry Hub Rebounds on Better Demand Forecasts and Reduced Output

Henry Hub futures surged 13.4% for the week ending 25/Oct led by improved weather forecasts and reduced output. While the put/call volume ratio...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

US Rig Count Unchanged for Second Week as Gas Rigs Offset Oil Decline

For the week ending 01/Nov, the US rig count remained unchanged again at 585. Oil rigs fell by 1 and gas rigs rose by 1. US oil production grew by...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

​US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

The Drill – Time to play the Natural Gas case again?

Dutch TTF is trading at its highest YTD price as supply is getting hit on various fronts. Firstly, as a consequence of the Houthis shenanigans in...

Steno Research

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/43] Henry Hub Rebounds on Better Demand Forecasts and Reduced Output

Henry Hub futures surged 13.4% for the week ending 25/Oct led by improved weather forecasts and reduced output. While the put/call volume ratio...

Mint Finance

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...