Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Winter demand and Europe’s shift from Russian gas have pushed U.S. LNG exports to record highs, tightening domestic balances and reshaping global pricing dynamics.</li>
<li>Upstream natural gas producers gain little from export strength because long-term contracts, hedging practices, and heavy reinvestment cycles limit their exposure to rising spot prices and short-term market volatility.</li>
<li>Midstream companies benefit most as fee-based pipeline revenues scale with higher LNG feed-gas flows. </li>
</ul>


Winter demand and Europe’s shift from Russian gas have pushed U.S. LNG exports to record highs, tightening domestic balances and reshaping global pricing dynamics.
Upstream natural gas producers gain little from export strength because long-term contracts, hedging practices, and heavy reinvestment cycles limit their exposure to rising spot prices and short-term market volatility.
Midstream companies benefit most as fee-based pipeline revenues scale with higher LNG feed-gas flows. 


Who Really Gains from America’s LNG Export Boom?

<ul>
<li>Global gas prices often diverge sharply as Henry Hub and TTF respond to regional conditions, unlike WTI and Brent, which move together due to seamless global crude market integration.</li>
<li>Recently, Henry Hub surged while TTF declined, highlighting how contrasting storage conditions, weather patterns, and demand fundamentals create major regional price disconnects in global natural gas markets.</li>
<li>Although LNG links regions, slow arbitrage, infrastructure limits, policy differences, and contrasting demand mixes prevent price alignment, leaving Henry Hub and TTF shaped by distinct regional fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Global gas prices often diverge sharply as Henry Hub and TTF respond to regional conditions, unlike WTI and Brent, which move together due to seamless global crude market integration.
Recently, Henry Hub surged while TTF declined, highlighting how contrasting storage conditions, weather patterns, and demand fundamentals create major regional price disconnects in global natural gas markets.
Although LNG links regions, slow arbitrage, infrastructure limits, policy differences, and contrasting demand mixes prevent price alignment, leaving Henry Hub and TTF shaped by distinct regional fundamentals.


Why Global Gas Prices Keep Breaking Apart Despite an LNG-Connected World

<ul>
<li>Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.</li>
<li>The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.</li>
<li>With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.
The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.
With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.


Gas Markets See Divergence Due to Weather, LNG Flows and Europe’s Calm Start

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio</li>
<li>Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction


Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

<ul>
<li>Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.</li>
<li>Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.</li>
<li>Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.</li>
</ul>


Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.


Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Who Really Gains from America’s LNG Export Boom?

Europe's shift from Russian gas boosts U.S. LNG exports. Upstream producers see limited gains due to long-term contracts, while midstream...

Mint Finance

Why Global Gas Prices Keep Breaking Apart Despite an LNG-Connected World

Global gas prices diverge due to regional conditions, with Henry Hub and TTF responding differently. Despite LNG links, factors like storage,...

Mint Finance

Gas Markets See Divergence Due to Weather, LNG Flows and Europe’s Calm Start

Henry Hub surges on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stays soft; weather and LNG flows drive volatile winter spread with...

Mint Finance

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It

U.S. LNG exports, power demand, and weather models tighten gas fundamentals, pushing Henry Hub futures to levels last seen in December 2022...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Who Really Gains from America’s LNG Export Boom?

​Europe's shift from Russian gas boosts U.S. LNG exports. Upstream producers see limited gains due to long-term contracts, while midstream...

Mint Finance

Why Global Gas Prices Keep Breaking Apart Despite an LNG-Connected World

​Global gas prices diverge due to regional conditions, with Henry Hub and TTF responding differently. Despite LNG links, factors like storage,...

Mint Finance

Gas Markets See Divergence Due to Weather, LNG Flows and Europe’s Calm Start

​Henry Hub surges on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stays soft; weather and LNG flows drive volatile winter spread with...

Mint Finance

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It

​U.S. LNG exports, power demand, and weather models tighten gas fundamentals, pushing Henry Hub futures to levels last seen in December 2022...

Mint Finance

Europe's shift from Russian gas boosts U.S. LNG exports. Upstream producers see limited gains due to long-term contracts, while midstream...

Global gas prices diverge due to regional conditions, with Henry Hub and TTF responding differently. Despite LNG links, factors like storage,...

Henry Hub surges on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stays soft; weather and LNG flows drive volatile winter spread with...

U.S. LNG exports, power demand, and weather models tighten gas fundamentals, pushing Henry Hub futures to levels last seen in December 2022...