Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Stars are aligning and both Steno Research and 3Fourteen research are now energy bullish.</li><li>Last week at Steno Research we looked at the potential for a bounce in Manufacturing PMI numbers and we thought it would be natural to look at both hard and soft data through the lens of one of the most important signals in the energy markets, namely the flip from contango to backwardation.</li><li>In general it can be said that the flip brings more volatility to soft data than hard data. Given PMIs general tendency to converge with hard data and its current levels (Almost GFC bearishness) we feel like there are plenty of reasons for betting on higher Manufacturing PMI numbers.  </li></ul>

Stars are aligning and both Steno Research and 3Fourteen research are now energy bullish.Last week at Steno Research we looked at the potential for a bounce in Manufacturing PMI numbers and we thought it would be natural to look at both hard and soft data through the lens of one of the most important signals in the energy markets, namely the flip from contango to backwardation.In general it can be said that the flip brings more volatility to soft data than hard data. Given PMIs general tendency to converge with hard data and its current levels (Almost GFC bearishness) we feel like there are plenty of reasons for betting on higher Manufacturing PMI numbers.  

The Energy Cable #30 – Progress for The Bulls

<ul><li>Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.</li><li>Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.</li><li>It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.</li></ul>

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #30 – Progress for The Bulls

Stars are aligning and both Steno Research and 3Fourteen research are now energy bullish. Find your weekly Energy fix below. Steno Research –...

Steno Research

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over...

The Commodity Report

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Market Cap (USDm)

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