European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Naturgy’s float now stands at 18.6% with re-inclusion into a major index confirmed; €150–250M in tracker flows expected by Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Liquidity metrics now well above thresholds, with September ADTV at €15.2M, ensuring long-term compliance.</li>
<li>Passive inflows of €150–250M expected by February 2026; increased ETF demand may tighten spreads, raise visibility, and shift borrow dynamics as short availability potentially declines.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy’s float now stands at 18.6% with re-inclusion into a major index confirmed; €150–250M in tracker flows expected by Feb 2026.
Liquidity metrics now well above thresholds, with September ADTV at €15.2M, ensuring long-term compliance.
Passive inflows of €150–250M expected by February 2026; increased ETF demand may tighten spreads, raise visibility, and shift borrow dynamics as short availability potentially declines.


Naturgy Index Re-Entry Confirmed – €250M Passive Flows Incoming

<ul>
<li>Naturgy has completed its final treasury sale, lifting free float to ~18.6% and reducing treasury stock to 1%, clearing the last major structural hurdle for MSCI Europe re-inclusion.</li>
<li>Liquidity surged in September with €15.2M in ADTV, exceeding MSCI thresholds; combined with sustained trading frequency and float, Naturgy is now fully compliant for February 2026 review.</li>
<li>Passive inflows of €150–250M are expected if included; price support around €25.90 remains intact. Current ownership structure caps float upside, solidifying 18.6% as a likely ceiling.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy has completed its final treasury sale, lifting free float to ~18.6% and reducing treasury stock to 1%, clearing the last major structural hurdle for MSCI Europe re-inclusion.
Liquidity surged in September with €15.2M in ADTV, exceeding MSCI thresholds; combined with sustained trading frequency and float, Naturgy is now fully compliant for February 2026 review.
Passive inflows of €150–250M are expected if included; price support around €25.90 remains intact. Current ownership structure caps float upside, solidifying 18.6% as a likely ceiling.


Naturgy Clears MSCI Liquidity Test – Final Float at 18.6%, Passive Flows in Sight

<ul>
<li>Naturgy placed 5.5% of its share capital via a discounted sale to boost free float above 15%, a key MSCI threshold. Shares dropped sharply, but strategic intent is clear.</li>
<li>Liquidity remains the final hurdle. A 3.5% block sold to Morgan Stanley is expected to be gradually recycled, helping Naturgy build trading volume ahead of the MSCI observation window close.</li>
<li>MSCI Europe re-inclusion is now likely by February 2026. I estimate €150–250M in passive flows could follow, supporting a 5%–8% price uplift from current levels.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy placed 5.5% of its share capital via a discounted sale to boost free float above 15%, a key MSCI threshold. Shares dropped sharply, but strategic intent is clear.
Liquidity remains the final hurdle. A 3.5% block sold to Morgan Stanley is expected to be gradually recycled, helping Naturgy build trading volume ahead of the MSCI observation window close.
MSCI Europe re-inclusion is now likely by February 2026. I estimate €150–250M in passive flows could follow, supporting a 5%–8% price uplift from current levels.


Naturgy: Accelerated Placement Clears MSCI Float Hurdle – Index Re-Entry Now Within Reach

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Naturgy’s auto-OPA was oversubscribed, leading to a low 10.27% proration and diminished arbitrage fill for public investors.</li>
<li>Share price recovery post-offer (€27.30) boosted returns above modeled expectations.</li>
<li>Planned treasury share placements may significantly increase free float and MSCI/FTSE index weights by 2026.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy’s auto-OPA was oversubscribed, leading to a low 10.27% proration and diminished arbitrage fill for public investors.
Share price recovery post-offer (€27.30) boosted returns above modeled expectations.
Planned treasury share placements may significantly increase free float and MSCI/FTSE index weights by 2026.


Naturgy: Auto-OPA Arbitrage Outcomes and Path to Index Reweighting

<ul>
<li>Shareholder-Backed self-OPA at €26.50 targets 9.08% of capital with high proration likely.</li>
<li>Offers a structured arbitrage setup with limited downside and defined exit timeline.</li>
<li>Post-Deal float expansion to &gt;21% boosts liquidity, index prospects, and dividend appeal.</li>
</ul>


Shareholder-Backed self-OPA at €26.50 targets 9.08% of capital with high proration likely.
Offers a structured arbitrage setup with limited downside and defined exit timeline.
Post-Deal float expansion to &gt;21% boosts liquidity, index prospects, and dividend appeal.


Naturgy Self-Tender: Arbitrage with Strategic Upside and Free-Float Catalyst

Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

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Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Naturgy Index Re-Entry Confirmed – €250M Passive Flows Incoming

Naturgy’s re-inclusion into a major index family is confirmed. With float at 18.6% and liquidity surging, €150–250M in passive flows are expected...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Naturgy Clears MSCI Liquidity Test – Final Float at 18.6%, Passive Flows in Sight

Naturgy has raised free float to 18.6% and cleared MSCI liquidity thresholds. With February 2026 re-inclusion likely, €150–250M in passive flows...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Naturgy: Accelerated Placement Clears MSCI Float Hurdle – Index Re-Entry Now Within Reach

Naturgy clears MSCI float hurdle with 5.5% placement. If liquidity improves, February 2026 re-entry could trigger €150–250M in passive inflows. A...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Naturgy: Auto-OPA Arbitrage Outcomes and Path to Index Reweighting

Naturgy’s oversubscribed auto-OPA offered low fill, but price rebound lifts returns. Upcoming treasury share placements may unlock index-driven...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Naturgy Self-Tender: Arbitrage with Strategic Upside and Free-Float Catalyst

Naturgy’s self-OPA offers a low-risk arbitrage with strong shareholder backing, high visibility on terms, and upside potential from float...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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