European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Float jumps to 25.8% after BlackRock’s €1.7B placement, structurally securing Naturgy’s MSCI and Ibex index eligibility ahead of February 2026 rebalancing.</li>
<li>3-Month ADTV hits €37.2M, up &gt;150% YoY, positioning Naturgy for higher index weights and improved liquidity metrics in both MSCI Europe and EMU benchmarks.</li>
<li>Dividend yield of 7.3%–7.8% at €24.75 offers downside support, while €150–250M in expected passive flows provide near-term catalysts into Q1 2026.</li>
</ul>


Float jumps to 25.8% after BlackRock’s €1.7B placement, structurally securing Naturgy’s MSCI and Ibex index eligibility ahead of February 2026 rebalancing.
3-Month ADTV hits €37.2M, up &gt;150% YoY, positioning Naturgy for higher index weights and improved liquidity metrics in both MSCI Europe and EMU benchmarks.
Dividend yield of 7.3%–7.8% at €24.75 offers downside support, while €150–250M in expected passive flows provide near-term catalysts into Q1 2026.


Naturgy Float Surges to 25.8% – Index Weight and Passive Flows Set to Rise

<ul>
<li>Naturgy’s float now stands at 18.6% with re-inclusion into a major index confirmed; €150–250M in tracker flows expected by Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Liquidity metrics now well above thresholds, with September ADTV at €15.2M, ensuring long-term compliance.</li>
<li>Passive inflows of €150–250M expected by February 2026; increased ETF demand may tighten spreads, raise visibility, and shift borrow dynamics as short availability potentially declines.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy’s float now stands at 18.6% with re-inclusion into a major index confirmed; €150–250M in tracker flows expected by Feb 2026.
Liquidity metrics now well above thresholds, with September ADTV at €15.2M, ensuring long-term compliance.
Passive inflows of €150–250M expected by February 2026; increased ETF demand may tighten spreads, raise visibility, and shift borrow dynamics as short availability potentially declines.


Naturgy Index Re-Entry Confirmed – €250M Passive Flows Incoming

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

<p>Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).</p>

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

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Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Naturgy Float Surges to 25.8% – Index Weight and Passive Flows Set to Rise

Naturgy completes BlackRock divestment, lifting float to 25.8% and ADTV to €37M. Index eligibility secured, passive flows on track. 7.3%–7.8%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Naturgy Index Re-Entry Confirmed – €250M Passive Flows Incoming

Naturgy’s re-inclusion into a major index family is confirmed. With float at 18.6% and liquidity surging, €150–250M in passive flows are expected...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE,...

Vermilion Research

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