Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The UK government has more than halved its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> over the last two years reflecting an improving financial health for the lender.</li>
<li>The UK government is a strategic shareholder and the selling is forecasted to cause a passive fund demand in the next two months across four indices.</li>
<li>At close of 20 September 2024, the aggregate passive fund demand for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> is currently estimated at 22.8m shares, $95.7m and 0.73 days of volume.</li>
</ul>


The UK government has more than halved its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) over the last two years reflecting an improving financial health for the lender.
The UK government is a strategic shareholder and the selling is forecasted to cause a passive fund demand in the next two months across four indices.
At close of 20 September 2024, the aggregate passive fund demand for NatWest Group (NWG LN) is currently estimated at 22.8m shares, $95.7m and 0.73 days of volume.


NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.</li>
<li>Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.</li>
<li>Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.
Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.
Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.


UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

United Kingdom

NatWest Group is a UK-focused banking organization operating in retail, commercial, and private banking markets. It offers a comprehensive range of products and services, including current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits. The group is headquartered in Edinburgh, Scotland, and was founded in 1968.

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NatWest Group (NWG LN)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

The UK Government is a strategic shareholder hence its reducing stake in NatWest is forecasted to cause a free float increase and generate passive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Active UK funds trail the benchmark by 4% YTD. Value managers outperform, but missed calls on Rolls-Royce, HSBC, and BAE Systems weigh heavily on...

Steven Holden

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

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