Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

NAURA Technology Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Naura announced 1H24 results. 1H revenue grew 46.4% YoY to RMB12.3bn, while NP grew 54.5% YoY to RMB2.8bn, both aligning with the mid-point of company’s earnings pre-announcement.</li><li>1H24 revenue/NP were 40%/46% of our FY24E forecast, consistent with the company’s historical seasonality, which saw 38%/46% in 1H23.</li><li>GPM improved to 45.5% in 1H24 (vs. 42%/41% in 1H23/FY23), while NPM expanded to 22.5% in 1H24 from 17.7% in FY23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Naura announced 1H24 results. 1H revenue grew 46.4% YoY to RMB12.3bn, while NP grew 54.5% YoY to RMB2.8bn, both aligning with the mid-point of company’s earnings pre-announcement.1H24 revenue/NP were 40%/46% of our FY24E forecast, consistent with the company’s historical seasonality, which saw 38%/46% in 1H23.GPM improved to 45.5% in 1H24 (vs. 42%/41% in 1H23/FY23), while NPM expanded to 22.5% in 1H24 from 17.7% in FY23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Naura Technology (002371 CH) - Robust Earnings with Margin Expansion; Maintain BUY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 2nd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$486.3 million, led by financials, health care, utilities sectors, and offset by consumer discretionary, materials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Wanhua Chemical, Moutai, CATL, Fuyao Glass Industry, Haier Smart Home.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 2nd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$486.3 million, led by financials, health care, utilities sectors, and offset by consumer discretionary, materials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Wanhua Chemical, Moutai, CATL, Fuyao Glass Industry, Haier Smart Home.


Northbound Flows (Aug 2nd): Wanhua Chemical, Moutai, CATL, Fuyao Glass Industry, Haier Smart Home

<ul><li>Naura announced a 1H24 profit alert. 1H revenue is expected to be within the range of RMB11.4-13.1bn, representing 35.4% to 55.9% YoY growth, respectively.</li><li>Net profit is estimated to be RMB2.6-3.0bn (YoY growth of 42.8% to 64.5%).</li><li>This implies that 2Q24 revenue (mid-point) could be RMB6.4bn (40.8% YoY and 9.5% QoQ growth), 5% below consensus estimate. 2Q24 net profit (mid-point) is expected to be RMB1.6bn (35.7% YoY and 45.4% QoQ growth), 9% above consensus estimate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Naura announced a 1H24 profit alert. 1H revenue is expected to be within the range of RMB11.4-13.1bn, representing 35.4% to 55.9% YoY growth, respectively.Net profit is estimated to be RMB2.6-3.0bn (YoY growth of 42.8% to 64.5%).This implies that 2Q24 revenue (mid-point) could be RMB6.4bn (40.8% YoY and 9.5% QoQ growth), 5% below consensus estimate. 2Q24 net profit (mid-point) is expected to be RMB1.6bn (35.7% YoY and 45.4% QoQ growth), 9% above consensus estimate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Naura Technology (002371 CH) - 1H24 Profit Alert Points to Solid 2Q Results

China

NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd. is an integrated high-tech company, which manufactures electronics equipments and components, including IC equipments, hybrid integrated circuits and combines with R&D, sales, and services.

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NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH)

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

There are 3 adds/3 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.8% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

There are 154 adds/80 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index. Round-trip trade is US$300m. There have been...

Brian Freitas

Naura Technology (002371 CH) - Robust Earnings with Margin Expansion; Maintain BUY

Naura announced 1H24 results. 1H revenue grew 46.4% YoY to RMB12.3bn, while NP grew 54.5% YoY to RMB2.8bn, both aligning with the mid-point of...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 2nd): Wanhua Chemical, Moutai, CATL, Fuyao Glass Industry, Haier Smart Home

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Wanhua Chemical, Moutai, CATL, Fuyao Glass...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Naura Technology (002371 CH) - 1H24 Profit Alert Points to Solid 2Q Results

Naura announced a 1H24 profit alert. 1H revenue is expected to be within the range of RMB11.4-13.1bn, representing 35.4% to 55.9% YoY growth,...

CMB International

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