China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 1H23 revenue estimate is 8.7% lower than consensus, and we expect 1H23 NPM at breakeven vs. consensus at 5%。</li>
<li>Mainly because teahouse brands in China had suffered the intensified competition from the price war in Coffee industry.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the intensified competition pressure.</li>
</ul>


Our 1H23 revenue estimate is 8.7% lower than consensus, and we expect 1H23 NPM at breakeven vs. consensus at 5%。
Mainly because teahouse brands in China had suffered the intensified competition from the price war in Coffee industry.
We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the intensified competition pressure.


[Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track

<ul>
<li>Nayuki reported C2H22 top line 0.9% below our estimate but 18% below consensus，due to deteriorating cost ratios; </li>
<li>Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past.</li>
<li>The company is abandoning its premium teahouse position, which begets unknown consequences in our opinion; We keep the TP unchanged at HK 3.1 and maintain SELL.</li>
</ul>


Nayuki reported C2H22 top line 0.9% below our estimate but 18% below consensus，due to deteriorating cost ratios; 
Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past.
The company is abandoning its premium teahouse position, which begets unknown consequences in our opinion; We keep the TP unchanged at HK 3.1 and maintain SELL.


[Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> has disclosed a delisting tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> at THB59.00 per share, a 26.9% premium to the undisturbed price (10 March).</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares. ThaiBev can vote at the EGM.</li>
<li>The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.</li>
</ul>



Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) has disclosed a delisting tender offer from Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) at THB59.00 per share, a 26.9% premium to the undisturbed price (10 March).
The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares. ThaiBev can vote at the EGM.
The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.


Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

China

Naisnow, formerly Nayuki Holdings Ltd., is an investment holding company that operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products under its flagship brand Nayuki and sub-brand Tai Gai. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and franchise operations. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

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Naisnow (2150 HK)

[Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track

We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Nayuki Holding (2150 HK) Target Price Change]: Business Model Change Has Risky Consequence

Company chose to drastically expand store count by ~600 in 2023. Our concern is that Nayuki stores now are drastically different from its past. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Bilibili (9626 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Oishi Group (OISHI TB): ThaiBev’s Delisting Tender Offer at THB59.00

The offer price is reasonable and timing is the key risk. The delisting EGM will be held on 3 May. The offer must be open for 45 business days.

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, Hong Kong Exchanges And...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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