Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with US ADRs, after having looked at HK, India, Japan and Korea earlier.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with US ADRs, after having looked at HK, India, Japan and Korea earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - US ADRs

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong ADP numbers drive bond and equity sell off; SPX -0.8% as all sectors in the red  as reality of further Fed hikes get real; EV Truce in China</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Expect further follow through of yesterday's NKY sell off; Yen strength won't help - as we head into weekend, correction finally here?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Profit Renaissance for Japan's Defense Industry. From big (MHI, Melco, etc) to Small - expect numerous beneficiaries of the policy changes afoot. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong ADP numbers drive bond and equity sell off; SPX -0.8% as all sectors in the red  as reality of further Fed hikes get real; EV Truce in China
JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Expect further follow through of yesterday's NKY sell off; Yen strength won't help - as we head into weekend, correction finally here?
NUGGET. Profit Renaissance for Japan's Defense Industry. From big (MHI, Melco, etc) to Small - expect numerous beneficiaries of the policy changes afoot. 


Ohayo Japan |Rates Rocket-Equities Take Heed; NUGGET: Profit Renaissance for Japan's Defense Sector

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.</li>
<li>On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.</li>
<li>Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.


Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Upward trend in new orders suggest that guidance is conservative.</li>
<li>Long-Term prospects good with digitalization, 5G and optical-electronic technology for 6G.</li>
<li>Lagging share price offers attractive valuations and 42% potential upside to previous high.</li>
</ul>


Upward trend in new orders suggest that guidance is conservative.
Long-Term prospects good with digitalization, 5G and optical-electronic technology for 6G.
Lagging share price offers attractive valuations and 42% potential upside to previous high.


NEC (6701 JP): Positive Orders Trend, Lagging Share Price

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - US ADRs

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with US ADRs, after having looked at HK, India, Japan and Korea...

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan |Rates Rocket-Equities Take Heed; NUGGET: Profit Renaissance for Japan's Defense Sector

ADP numbers drive Bond and Equity Sell off; NKY Futs -1.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Expect further follow through of yesterday's NKY sell off; Yen...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

Toshiba has seen shares rise a bit since Day1 post-anncmt ~6 weeks ago, but Peers have risen further and the earnings shift on forward consensus is...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - US ADRs

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with US ADRs, after having looked at HK, India, Japan and Korea...

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan |Rates Rocket-Equities Take Heed; NUGGET: Profit Renaissance for Japan's Defense Sector

ADP numbers drive Bond and Equity Sell off; NKY Futs -1.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Expect further follow through of yesterday's NKY sell off; Yen...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

Toshiba has seen shares rise a bit since Day1 post-anncmt ~6 weeks ago, but Peers have risen further and the earnings shift on forward consensus is...

Travis Lundy

NEC (6701 JP): Positive Orders Trend, Lagging Share Price

Orders trend positive through Q3. FY Mar-23 guidance looks conservative. Digitalization and 5G/6G trends positive for mid- to long-term growth....

Scott Foster