Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/future-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5485:1" rel="noopener">Future Corporation (4722 JP)</a> announced a Chairman-led MBO at JPY2,451, a 2.9% premium to the last close of JPY2,382.  </li>
<li>The low takeover premium could be explained by the mysterious 65.13% share price surge from 24 June to 27 July. Also, the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>However, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent transactions, potentially attracting activists.</li>
</ul>



Future Corporation (4722 JP) announced a Chairman-led MBO at JPY2,451, a 2.9% premium to the last close of JPY2,382.  
The low takeover premium could be explained by the mysterious 65.13% share price surge from 24 June to 27 July. Also, the offer represents an all-time high. 
However, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent transactions, potentially attracting activists.


Future Corp (4722 JP): A Chairman-Led MBO Could Invite Activism

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

<ul>
<li>On 2 July, Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> plans to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a> private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


On 2 July, Nikkei reported that Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) plans to take Dentsu Soken (4812 JP) private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.
The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.


Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Japan

NEC Networks & System Integration Corporation designs, constructs, and maintains communication systems.  The Company's services include system integration services for digital switching, local area network (LAN), and mobile communication systems.  NEC Networks & System Integration also constructs information infrastructure and intelligent building facilities.

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Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP)

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Future Corp (4722 JP): A Chairman-Led MBO Could Invite Activism

While an all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent...

Arun George

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) was a big focus for us last week, and it remains the focus in today's report; this could be the start of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and...

Arun George

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