External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarter</li><li>Recovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steady</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarterRecovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steadyContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectations</li><li>Volume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four-year CAGR at &lt;3%</li><li>Rural recovery has been slow despite price cuts and overall softening in the inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectationsVolume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four-year CAGR at &lt;3%Rural recovery has been slow despite price cuts and overall softening in the inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, ITC, UltraTech Cement

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)</li><li>The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24</li><li>Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfall</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfallContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

<ul><li>Q1FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 3%/52% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~219 stocks), with their four-year CAGRs at 12%/22%</li><li>Large-cap stocks of the coverage universe dominated the incremental earnings, which grew by 55% YoY, while the midcap category grew by 24% YoY</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 3%/52% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~219 stocks), with their four-year CAGRs at 12%/22%Large-cap stocks of the coverage universe dominated the incremental earnings, which grew by 55% YoY, while the midcap category grew by 24% YoYContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy: Input cost deflation hurts topline but boosts profitability

India

Nestle India Limited is the Indian subsidiary of the Swiss multinational company Nestlé, operating as a prominent player in India's Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry. The company manufactures and sells a diverse range of food products, beverages, chocolates, and confectioneries, with key brands including Maggi, Nescafé, and KitKat. Nestle India Limited was incorporated on March 28, 1959, and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year...

HDFC Securities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, ITC, UltraTech Cement

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectations. Volume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy: Input cost deflation hurts topline but boosts profitability

Large-cap stocks of the coverage universe dominated the incremental earnings, which grew by 55% YoY, while the midcap category grew by 24% YoY

HDFC Securities

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