China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games. 3) Market over-optimism regarding new games and AI.</li>
<li>NetEase still has some positive catalysts in the long term, including: 1) New games and content expansions. 2) Overseas game publishing. 3) Continual improvement in margins.</li>
<li>We expect NetEase's revenue in 2Q23 to be slightly lower than the consensus estimates of 2.5%, with a 13.3% beat in profits. Cut TP to $102, but maintain BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games. 3) Market over-optimism regarding new games and AI.
NetEase still has some positive catalysts in the long term, including: 1) New games and content expansions. 2) Overseas game publishing. 3) Continual improvement in margins.
We expect NetEase's revenue in 2Q23 to be slightly lower than the consensus estimates of 2.5%, with a 13.3% beat in profits. Cut TP to $102, but maintain BUY rating.


[NetEase(NTES US, BUY, TP US$102) TP Change]: Cut TP to $102 Due to More Near-Term Downside Risks

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>NetEase delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter with revenues above market expectations but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.</li><li>The company experienced positive momentum with increased net revenues and significant growth in net income attributable to NetEase shareholders.</li><li>The company's strong growth in Q3, with increased revenues, robust net income, and sustained Chinese audience engagement, positions them for future success.</li></ul>

NetEase delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter with revenues above market expectations but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.The company experienced positive momentum with increased net revenues and significant growth in net income attributable to NetEase shareholders.The company's strong growth in Q3, with increased revenues, robust net income, and sustained Chinese audience engagement, positions them for future success.

NetEase Inc.: Launch of Multifunctional Studio & Other Developments

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.</li>
<li>Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.</li>
<li>JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.</li>
</ul>


KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>NetEase reported 1Q23 results on 25 May. Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB25.0bn in 1Q23, in line with our/consensus estimate.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income grew by 48% YoY to RMB7.6bn in 1Q23, beating our/consensus estimate by 36/33%, mainly attributable to the solid gross margin improvement (+5pct YoY) and effective control in marketing expenses.</li><li>We raise FY23-25E non-GAAP net income forecast by 8-10% mainly on more positive games GPM outlook and operating leverage. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NetEase reported 1Q23 results on 25 May. Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB25.0bn in 1Q23, in line with our/consensus estimate.Non-GAAP net income grew by 48% YoY to RMB7.6bn in 1Q23, beating our/consensus estimate by 36/33%, mainly attributable to the solid gross margin improvement (+5pct YoY) and effective control in marketing expenses.We raise FY23-25E non-GAAP net income forecast by 8-10% mainly on more positive games GPM outlook and operating leverage. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NetEase (NTES US) – Solid mobile games and margin improvement support strong 1Q23 results

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.</li>
<li>We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.</li>
<li>We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.


[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

China

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

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NetEase Inc (NTES US)

[NetEase(NTES US, BUY, TP US$102) TP Change]: Cut TP to $102 Due to More Near-Term Downside Risks

NetEase faces three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games; 3)...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NetEase Inc.: Launch of Multifunctional Studio & Other Developments

NetEase delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter with revenues above market expectations but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in...

Baptista Research

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

NetEase (NTES US) – Solid mobile games and margin improvement support strong 1Q23 results

NetEase reported 1Q23 results on 25 May. Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB25.0bn in 1Q23, in line with our/consensus estimate.

CMB International

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[NetEase(NTES US, BUY, TP US$102) TP Change]: Cut TP to $102 Due to More Near-Term Downside Risks

NetEase faces three risks in the short term: 1) Decreased gross billings from former legacies due to macro. 2) Lifecycle issues with new games; 3)...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NetEase Inc.: Launch of Multifunctional Studio & Other Developments

NetEase delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter with revenues above market expectations but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in...

Baptista Research

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

NetEase (NTES US) – Solid mobile games and margin improvement support strong 1Q23 results

NetEase reported 1Q23 results on 25 May. Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB25.0bn in 1Q23, in line with our/consensus estimate.

CMB International

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

​Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...