Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China's September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.</li>
<li>Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.</li>
<li>Our "China Twelve" stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors' preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the "top bought" Southbound list - reaffirming our bullishness on them.</li>
</ul>


Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China's September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
Our "China Twelve" stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors' preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the "top bought" Southbound list - reaffirming our bullishness on them.


Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US: SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fee practices (-/-/-)</li>
<li>3690 HK: "Shen Qiang Shou" and "Pin Hao Fan" Both Surpass 10 Million Daily Orders (+)</li>
<li>TCOM US: Thailand's Foreign Tourist Arrivals Decline by 2% YoY, Chinese Tourists Drop 33% (-)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US: SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fee practices (-/-/-)
3690 HK: "Shen Qiang Shou" and "Pin Hao Fan" Both Surpass 10 Million Daily Orders (+)
TCOM US: Thailand's Foreign Tourist Arrivals Decline by 2% YoY, Chinese Tourists Drop 33% (-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US/TCOM US/700 HK/NTES US/1024 HK/JD US/BILI US/AI

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>NTES US/700 HK/002624 CH: NPPA released the May approval results for domestic and imported game code licenses（+/+/+）</li>
<li>NTES US: NetEase Games Conference Reveals Progress on 4 New Games (+)</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US: EU Proposes EUR2 Fee on Cross-Border Small Parcels(-/-)</li>
</ul>


NTES US/700 HK/002624 CH: NPPA released the May approval results for domestic and imported game code licenses（+/+/+）
NTES US: NetEase Games Conference Reveals Progress on 4 New Games (+)
BABA US/PDD US: EU Proposes EUR2 Fee on Cross-Border Small Parcels(-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/002624 CH/BABA US/PDD US/1357 HK

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US/TCOM US/700 HK/NTES US/1024 HK/JD US/BILI US/AI

SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fees; "Shen Qiang Shou" and "Pin Hao Fan" exceed 10M daily orders;Thailand sees decline in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/002624 CH/BABA US/PDD US/1357 HK

NPPA releases May approval results for game licenses; NetEase Games Conference shows progress on 4 new games; EU proposes EUR2 fee on cross-border...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US/TCOM US/700 HK/NTES US/1024 HK/JD US/BILI US/AI

​SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fees; "Shen Qiang Shou" and "Pin Hao Fan" exceed 10M daily orders;Thailand sees decline in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/002624 CH/BABA US/PDD US/1357 HK

​NPPA releases May approval results for game licenses; NetEase Games Conference shows progress on 4 new games; EU proposes EUR2 fee on cross-border...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fees; "Shen Qiang Shou" and "Pin Hao Fan" exceed 10M daily orders;Thailand sees decline in...

NPPA releases May approval results for game licenses; NetEase Games Conference shows progress on 4 new games; EU proposes EUR2 fee on cross-border...