Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.</li>
<li>We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.


Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NETGEAR (NTGR) has implemented a hard reset to the business and expectations that could result in several more quarters of dismal results</li>
<li>NTGR reported first quarter results that were in line with our estimates. However, NTGR’s new CEO plans to significantly reduce inventory in the second quarter in one concentrated manner</li>
<li>NTGR disclosed it was not selling as many of its ultra-premium Orbi mesh systems as initially expected</li>
</ul>


NETGEAR (NTGR) has implemented a hard reset to the business and expectations that could result in several more quarters of dismal results
NTGR reported first quarter results that were in line with our estimates. However, NTGR’s new CEO plans to significantly reduce inventory in the second quarter in one concentrated manner
NTGR disclosed it was not selling as many of its ultra-premium Orbi mesh systems as initially expected


<ul>
<li>The first quarter is seasonally the softest for selling wireless routers. The expectations for NTGR are for the firm to generate positive free cash flow while revenue declines sequentially. </li>
<li>We are anticipating NTGR's cash per share to reach approximately $12 for the March quarter and maintain a forecast of $14 per share by the end of 2024</li>
<li>The price competition at the lower end remains unchanged and dependent on NTGR clearing out inventory ahead of the peak selling period in the second half of the year</li>
</ul>


The first quarter is seasonally the softest for selling wireless routers. The expectations for NTGR are for the firm to generate positive free cash flow while revenue declines sequentially. 
We are anticipating NTGR's cash per share to reach approximately $12 for the March quarter and maintain a forecast of $14 per share by the end of 2024
The price competition at the lower end remains unchanged and dependent on NTGR clearing out inventory ahead of the peak selling period in the second half of the year


<ul>
<li>NTGR continues to struggle to find the proper pace of the wireless router industry after surpassing expectations for the fourth quarter.</li>
<li>The Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle we have been looking forward seems more of a year end event. In the meantime, NTGR is accumulating cash through working capital conversion</li>
<li>NTGR should have approximately $12 per share of cash on its balance sheet by the end of the first quarter 2024. </li>
</ul>


NTGR continues to struggle to find the proper pace of the wireless router industry after surpassing expectations for the fourth quarter.
The Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle we have been looking forward seems more of a year end event. In the meantime, NTGR is accumulating cash through working capital conversion
NTGR should have approximately $12 per share of cash on its balance sheet by the end of the first quarter 2024. 


United States

NETGEAR, Inc. provides networking products designed for small businesses and homes.  The Company's suite of products enables small businesses and homes to share Internet access, peripherals, digital content, and applications among multiple personal computers and other Internet-enabled devices.  NETGEAR markets and sells its products through distributors to a network of resellers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Netgear Inc (NTGR US)

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Growth Leading This EOY Rally $MSFT $AAPL as Tech $XLK Breaks Out; Expect More Upside $ARKK $ARKW $ARKF $BITQ $WGMI. PHLX Semiconductor $SOXX With...

Vermilion Research

NTGR: Hard Reset, Downgrading

While first quarter was in line with our estimates commentary surrounding a slowdown in ultra-premium Orbi mesh systems and no concrete timeline to...

BWS Financial Inc

NTGR: The Value of an Upgrade Cycle

While NTGR's stock has increased in value we do not believe it accurately reflects the value of the enterprise nor the possibility of the Wi-Fi 7...

BWS Financial Inc

NTGR: The Cash Value

NTGR is beginning to show attributes of a melting ice cube if Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle does not take hold. The $10 cash per share rose at YE 2023...

BWS Financial Inc

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)