Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.
The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.

Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.


Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Acadia Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acadia-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10370:1" rel="noopener">Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD US)</a> markets CNS drug Nuplazid, which is cash flow positive with increasing profitability since 2019. Acadia has guided for Nuplazid revenue of $520M–550M for 2023.</li>
<li>On April 17, Acadia has launched in-licensed drug Daybue in the U.S. for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older.</li>
<li>Nuplazid is being evaluated for negative symptoms of schizophrenia with top-line results expected in early 2024. In-house drug candidate ACP-204 is in Phase 1 trial for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis.</li>
</ul>



Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD US) markets CNS drug Nuplazid, which is cash flow positive with increasing profitability since 2019. Acadia has guided for Nuplazid revenue of $520M–550M for 2023.
On April 17, Acadia has launched in-licensed drug Daybue in the U.S. for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older.
Nuplazid is being evaluated for negative symptoms of schizophrenia with top-line results expected in early 2024. In-house drug candidate ACP-204 is in Phase 1 trial for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis.


Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD US): No Hallucination; Clear Path of Accelerated Growth Ahead

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Domain Holdings Australia  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the latest data, I do not expect any changes for ASX 20, ASX 50, and ASX 100.</li>
<li>I expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neuren-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4494:1" rel="noopener">Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)</a> to be added to ASX 200 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a> to be deleted from ASX 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
Based on the latest data, I do not expect any changes for ASX 20, ASX 50, and ASX 100.
I expect Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU) to be added to ASX 200 and Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) to be deleted from ASX 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: DHG Could Underperform Peers

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Neuren Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neuren-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4494:1" rel="noopener">Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)</a>'s lead product Daybue (trofinetide) has obtained FDA approval for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older.  </li>
<li>Daybue is expected to be available in the US in April, 2023. Neuren is eligible to receive royalties on net sales of trofinetide in North America, plus milestone payments.  </li>
<li>Geography expansion of trofinetide (mainly European approval and launch), label expansion possibility of trofinetide, and Neuren’s pipeline progress can act as potential upside catalysts for the stock.</li>
</ul>



Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)'s lead product Daybue (trofinetide) has obtained FDA approval for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older.  
Daybue is expected to be available in the US in April, 2023. Neuren is eligible to receive royalties on net sales of trofinetide in North America, plus milestone payments.  
Geography expansion of trofinetide (mainly European approval and launch), label expansion possibility of trofinetide, and Neuren’s pipeline progress can act as potential upside catalysts for the stock.


Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): It’s Not Too Late to Join the Bandwagon; More Stream Is Still Left

Australia

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches neurological and metabolic disorders.

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Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)

Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Blackmores has signed a SID with Kirin. The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to last close and values Blackmores at A$1.85bn. A fully-franked...

Brian Freitas

Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD US): No Hallucination; Clear Path of Accelerated Growth Ahead

Acadia is well-positioned to report accelerated double-digit revenue growth through 2025 driven by new Rett syndrome drug launch in the US and...

Tina Banerjee

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: DHG Could Underperform Peers

DHG could underperform peers over the next few weeks as the index deletion possibility could act as a catalyst and help its price ratios vs peers...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas