External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>New Oriental announced 1QFY25 results on 23 Oct: net revenue grew by 30.5% YoY to US$1,435mn (or +33.5% YoY if excluding East Buy revenue), in line with our/consensus estimate of US$1,396mn/1,442mn; non-GAAP net income grew by 39.8% YoY to US$265mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$256/258mn, driven by enhanced operating margin of core educational business. Looking into 2QFY25E, management expects total net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 25-28% YoY to US$851-872mn, decelerating due to the seasonality effect and macro impact on certain highASP businesses.</li><li>Nonetheless, management expects revenue growth to reaccelerate in 3Q/4Q and full-year revenue growth to remain at c.+30% YoY in FY25E (excl. East Buy).</li><li>We lower FY25 total revenue/non-GAAP earnings forecasts by 1.0/9.6% respectively, as the soft consumption sentiment affects overseas-related and high-end 1v1 tutoring businesses. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental announced 1QFY25 results on 23 Oct: net revenue grew by 30.5% YoY to US$1,435mn (or +33.5% YoY if excluding East Buy revenue), in line with our/consensus estimate of US$1,396mn/1,442mn; non-GAAP net income grew by 39.8% YoY to US$265mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$256/258mn, driven by enhanced operating margin of core educational business. Looking into 2QFY25E, management expects total net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 25-28% YoY to US$851-872mn, decelerating due to the seasonality effect and macro impact on certain highASP businesses.Nonetheless, management expects revenue growth to reaccelerate in 3Q/4Q and full-year revenue growth to remain at c.+30% YoY in FY25E (excl. East Buy).We lower FY25 total revenue/non-GAAP earnings forecasts by 1.0/9.6% respectively, as the soft consumption sentiment affects overseas-related and high-end 1v1 tutoring businesses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental (EDU US) - Soft Consumption Weighs on Demand for High-ASP Businesses

<ul><li>New Oriental reported 4QFY24 results: net revenue was up by 32% YoY to US$1,137mn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 41% YoY to US$36.9mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$62/72mn, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce business.</li><li>FY24 total revenue/nonGAAP net income grew by 44/47% YoY to US$4,314/381mn. For 1QFY25E, excluding East Buy financials, management guided total revenue to grow by 31- 34% YoY to US$1,255-1,284mn, and OPM to expand by 200bps YoY.</li><li>We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental reported 4QFY24 results: net revenue was up by 32% YoY to US$1,137mn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 41% YoY to US$36.9mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$62/72mn, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce business.FY24 total revenue/nonGAAP net income grew by 44/47% YoY to US$4,314/381mn. For 1QFY25E, excluding East Buy financials, management guided total revenue to grow by 31- 34% YoY to US$1,255-1,284mn, and OPM to expand by 200bps YoY.We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental (EDU US) - Core Educational Business Sustained Strong Momentum

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.</li>
<li>The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. </li>
<li>The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.</li>
</ul>



New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.
The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. 
The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.


New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK):  A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

<ul>
<li>Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.</li>
<li>The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category</li>
<li>10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.</li>
</ul>


Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.
The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category
10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Kweichow Moutai’s revenue rose by 17% YoY and net profit increased by 15% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024.</li>
<li>JD gives cents to prevent users from closing accounts after the public relation crisis.</li>
<li>Two tutoring schools, New Oriental and TAL, grew strongly in the most recent quarters.</li>
</ul>


Kweichow Moutai’s revenue rose by 17% YoY and net profit increased by 15% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024.
JD gives cents to prevent users from closing accounts after the public relation crisis.
Two tutoring schools, New Oriental and TAL, grew strongly in the most recent quarters.


China Consumption Weekly (28 Oct 2024): Kweichow Moutai, JD, New Oriental, TAL, Meituan

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

New Oriental (EDU US) - Soft Consumption Weighs on Demand for High-ASP Businesses

We lower FY25 total revenue/non-GAAP earnings forecasts by 1.0/9.6% respectively, as the soft consumption sentiment affects overseas-related and...

CMB International

New Oriental (EDU US) - Core Educational Business Sustained Strong Momentum

We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy.

CMB International

New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK): A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Shares up 8% today in a brutal market - the industry competitive fundamentals have changed for the better. A great opportunity in all stock market...

Steve

A New New Oriental?

After the recent doldrums, the education giant New Orient re-entered the spotlight recently with its new found streaming success. But can it last?

Evelyn Zhang

China Consumption Weekly (28 Oct 2024): Kweichow Moutai, JD, New Oriental, TAL, Meituan

Kweichow Moutai’s revenue rose by 17% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024. JD prevents users from closing accounts after the public relation...

Ming Lu

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