Greater China property focus, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Greater China property focus

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this note, we looked at the privatization offer from Chow Tai Fook, and its impact on NWD 17 HK</li>
<li>The proposed transaction will help NWD unlock its value and reduce gearing, which has been investor’s major concern</li>
<li>It is only the beginning of part of strategic review of NWD group.  We view more positive catalysts are coming</li>
</ul>


In this note, we looked at the privatization offer from Chow Tai Fook, and its impact on NWD 17 HK
The proposed transaction will help NWD unlock its value and reduce gearing, which has been investor’s major concern
It is only the beginning of part of strategic review of NWD group.  We view more positive catalysts are coming


Short Note: CTF, Shareholder of NWD 17 HK, Announced Proposed Privatization for NWS, Positive to NWD

<ul>
<li>NWD has the highest gearing among all HK real estate names.  It has significantly underperformed since the rate hike cycle begun.  Now it has the biggest potential to rebound</li>
<li>The stock is trading at attractive valuation, 0.27x P/B, like a distressed Chinese developer.  The major market concerns are potential earnings downgrade and dividend cut</li>
<li>I am quite convicted on the stock for rebound given 1) company has clear de-leveraging plan 2) no plans for equity-raise 3) lots of corporate actions ahead to unlock value</li>
</ul>


NWD has the highest gearing among all HK real estate names.  It has significantly underperformed since the rate hike cycle begun.  Now it has the biggest potential to rebound
The stock is trading at attractive valuation, 0.27x P/B, like a distressed Chinese developer.  The major market concerns are potential earnings downgrade and dividend cut
I am quite convicted on the stock for rebound given 1) company has clear de-leveraging plan 2) no plans for equity-raise 3) lots of corporate actions ahead to unlock value


New World Development(17 HK):High Leverage in HKRE but Likely the First to Rebound if Rate Peaks Out

<ul>
<li>Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle</li>
<li>To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK</li>
<li>Apart from HK RE developers, buy China's name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)</li>
</ul>


Upcoming banking crisis will accelerate in the coming few weeks, it is very likely Fed will slow down rate hike or re-start a rate cut cycle
To position for this:  BUY Hong Kong property developers New World Development 17 HK, Henderson 12 HK, Sun Hung Kai Properties 16 HK
Apart from HK RE developers, buy China's name Hang Lung (101 HK) and crypto-currency (BTC and ETH)


Short Note: Position for Upcoming Banking Crisis, BUY Hong Kong & China Property Stocks, and BTC/ETH

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Credit

<ul>
<li>HK corps have performed well since Nov’22, in line with the sharp rebound of the market.</li>
<li>Like peers in other space, the conviction of HK corps is lower at current valuation.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we still see value in selected HK perps of which coupon will be reset and/or step-up upon the first call dates and issuers can access various funding channels. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


HK corps have performed well since Nov’22, in line with the sharp rebound of the market.
Like peers in other space, the conviction of HK corps is lower at current valuation.
Nonetheless, we still see value in selected HK perps of which coupon will be reset and/or step-up upon the first call dates and issuers can access various funding channels. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Henderson Land Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Expropriation.
Not the word Hong Kong property developers, sitting on millions of square feet of farmland, wish to hear. And the newish Bauhinia Party (just) stops short of suggesting such an approach.
But a recent <a href="https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/%E7%B4%AB%E8%8D%8A%E9%BB%A8%E5%85%A7%E9%83%A8%E5%88%8A%E7%89%A9-%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%88%BF%E5%B1%8B%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C%E5%A8%81%E8%84%85-%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%8B-%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8-%E5%80%A1%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE%E5%87%BA%E9%9D%A2%E5%8D%94%E8%AA%BF-%E8%88%89%E4%BE%8B%E5%8F%AF%E5%BC%B7%E5%BE%B5%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal discussion paper</a>, authored by an executive committee member of the Bauhinia Party, refers to the housing issue in Hong Kong, wherein the gap between the rich and poor is widening, causing social unrest to the point of "threatening the security of one country". The paper indicates the Central government has the right to coordinate the supply of land in Hong Kong.
The Bauhinia party, established by mainland Chinese executives, is a pro-Beijing political party with close links to Beijing's authorities. I would not be so quick to dismiss such commentary and the potential knock-on effect to local property developers.
More below the fold.
<hr>
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Expropriation.
Not the word Hong Kong property developers, sitting on millions of square feet of farmland, wish to hear. And the newish Bauhinia Party (just) stops short of suggesting such an approach.
But a recent internal discussion paper, authored by an executive committee member of the Bauhinia Party, refers to the housing issue in Hong Kong, wherein the gap between the rich and poor is widening, causing social unrest to the point of "threatening the security of one country". The paper indicates the Central government has the right to coordinate the supply of land in Hong Kong.
The Bauhinia party, established by mainland Chinese executives, is a pro-Beijing political party with close links to Beijing's authorities. I would not be so quick to dismiss such commentary and the potential knock-on effect to local property developers.
More below the fold.



Hong Kong Property Developers: Eminent Domain

Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

New World Development (17 HK)

Short Note: CTF, Shareholder of NWD 17 HK, Announced Proposed Privatization for NWS, Positive to NWD

CTF, NWD's shareholder proposed to privatize NWS. We view the transaction as positive as it streamlines corporate structure, and will reduce NWD...

Jacob Cheng